From July 11th to 17th, the construction steel market of rebar and wire rods of Shencheng once showed a good running trend, the price stopped falling and rebounded, and the sales of traders were still good. The author interviewed the Steel Trading Office of the Shanghai-funded market. Some salesmen seem to have more smiles on their faces. A salesperson said that he sold more than 300 tons yesterday and has been eating 'whiteboards' for the previous time. Those middlemen are also eager to try, move goods in the market, waiting for the market outlook to be bullish. A steel trade company sold more than 2,500 tons of steel in one day, of which 2,000 tons were bought by middlemen. However, in a few days, the market will no longer rise, and even the shock will decline. Although the decline is not large, it has not heard the price increase. Those middlemen who have a sensitive sense of smell are no longer 'moving'. On Monday (July 11), a large steel company introduced a steel price policy in mid-July, and the ex-factory price of the high-line and coiled snails was lowered again, with a drop of 30-50 yuan/ton, which has a certain impact on the spot market. . For the trend of the steel market in the later period, whether there is a 'turning point', some operators think that the degree of influence on the steel market in the macro policy layer is concerned. From now on, there are still many negative factors in the macro policy, specifically: Tightening will become a normal state. The analysis of the domestic famous steel spot trading platform Xiben Shinkansen believes that from July 11 to 17, the central bank announced that the benchmark interest rate for RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions will be raised by 0.25 percentage points from July 7. As of July 7, the monthly discount rate of Shanghai major bank acceptance bills reached 7.19‰, up 4.05% from 6.91 on June 21, setting a new high since January 2008. Monetary policy will still curb inflation as the main target of macroeconomic regulation and control. This year, the central bank has raised interest rates three times and raised the deposit reserve ratio six times. With the cumulative effect of austerity policies, market capitalization and high financing costs will become normal. Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released that the CPI in June rose by 6.4% year-on-year, a new high in three years. This shows that inflationary pressure is still high, and the tightening policy has not yet reached an inflection point. If the trade surplus continues to rise in the future, the deposit reserve ratio will still have room for upward adjustment. At present, China is still in the era of negative interest rates. Therefore, in the process from negative interest rates to positive interest rates, interest rates still have room for upward adjustment. Therefore, future monetary policies may continue to be tight. Tight monetary policy may put a lot of pressure on the production and operation costs of SMEs, thus curbing the release of demand for steel. Second, the demand for steel in the downstream terminal steel industry has weakened. Recently, the manufacturing industry of automobiles, home appliances, hardware, machinery and other industries has not been high, and the growth rate of production and sales has declined. There have been two phenomena, and steel demand has decreased. The National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data on July 1. The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.9% in June, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. Third, the volume of steel exports is declining, and the situation is still not optimistic. According to customs statistics, in June 2011, China imported 1.2 million tons of steel, a decrease of 270,000 tons, a decrease of 18.4%, and a daily average decrease of 3.1%. The export of steel was 4.29 million tons, a decrease of 1.33 million tons, a decrease of 23.7%, and a daily average decrease of 6.9%. In June, China imported 30,000 tons of steel billets, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared with the same period of last year, a drop of 50%; The steel was converted into crude steel. In June, China imported 1.31 million tons of crude steel, a decrease of 280,000 tons, a decrease of 17.5%, and a daily average decrease of 3%. The export of crude steel was 4.56 million tons, a decrease of 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 24.4%. The daily average decreased by 6.9%; the net export volume of crude steel was 3.26 million tons, down 1.2 million tons year on year, down 26.9%. Therefore, the steel export situation in the later period is not optimistic. Fourth, the capacity of steel mills continued to be released, and the contradiction between supply and demand increased. In late June, domestic crude steel production hit another record high. According to the statistics of the Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel in 76 key enterprises in the second half of June was 1,692,300 tons, an increase of 3.21% over the previous decade. Based on this estimate, the average daily production of crude steel in the country was 2.018 million tons, an increase of 3.20% from the previous decade, and exceeded 2 million tons for the first time and reached a record high. In June, the national average daily crude steel output was 1.954 million tons. At present, the domestic steel market is in the low season of traditional consumption, and the output of crude steel has reached a new high, which will intensify the pressure of oversupply in the domestic steel market. Some operators believe that from the above data, the driving force to support the price rise of the steel market is insufficient. For the later market conditions, many dealers believe that the market price is unlikely to rise and fall in the short term, and it will still be dominated by shocks. Now turning points. Only by the end of July or August, those major steel industries will re-energize after hitting the low point of the year, and need to prepare for the next production season. The demand is expected to increase, and the peak of the housing starts will come. Steel market prices are expected to show a wave of rebound.
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