Aluminium Market Review Week of November 14

LME copper and aluminum markets: Last week, LME’s copper prices began to decline after three months, and the price maintained a slight downward trend during the first three trading days. On Thursday, the copper output of the country's 2005 and 2006 copper production was forecasted by the Cocililco Copper Council of Chile. Underestimating the downward adjustment, and raising the copper price estimate at the same time, the active fund buying of the stimulus funds by this positive factor pushed the market price of copper up to $4022 and closed above $4,000 for the first time. The upward momentum of Friday’s gains was further expanded and the market was successfully refreshed. Record highs, which ended at the day's higher price of 4102.5 U.S. dollars and rose by 121 U.S. dollars from last Friday. Last week, LME's three-month aluminum price was affected by the copper prices in the relevant market and went through a similar rise. In the first half of the week, aluminum prices have been stable. Above $2,000, but there was no further upward momentum. On Thursday, as copper metal prices once again exceeded the $4,000 mark, long active buying caused aluminum prices to renew record highs for the previous week, higher levels. To 2058 US dollars, Friday's closing price reported to 2053.5 US dollars, up 29 dollars from last Friday. Cause of the trend: 1. On Thursday, Cochilco, the Chilean government’s copper committee, said that the 2005 copper production forecast in Chile was reduced to 5.327 million tons, which was originally forecast at 5.504 million tons, indicating that this year’s copper production in Chile will be lower than last year’s 5.413 million tons. Copper output is expected to increase by 2.6% to 5.511 million tons in 2006, which is also lower than its previous forecast of 5.525 million tons. Cochilco raised this year's average copper price range from 1.44-1.48 pounds per pound to 1.62-1.66. The committee expects that the average copper price next year will be between $1.46 and $1.50, with a previous estimate of 1.18-1.22. The reduction in copper production estimates in 2005 and 2006, as well as the favorable support of copper price hikes, pushed copper prices to rise at the weekend; 2. On Friday, the inventory data released by LME showed that copper stocks decreased by 1,100 tons, the total stock was 65,350 tons, aluminum stocks decreased by 700 tons, and the total stock was 496,525 tons. The reduction in inventory reflects the continued strong market for metal copper consumption. The momentum has also provided some support for higher copper prices. SHFE copper and aluminum markets: Last week, Shanghai copper turmoil. The main Shanghai copper January contract opened with 36810 on Monday, and the intraday price tested upwards to the 37040 line. As the bulls took up the weak supply, the price turned to oscillation after failing to break through effectively. After continuous weakening in the previous four trading days, Thursday's closing price reported to 36580 yuan, Friday by the sharp rise in London copper incentives, Shanghai copper jumped nearly 500 points higher in early trading, the daily report received positive cross star, the closing price rose 490 yuan to 37,090, the market traded moderately, Friday Hand positions 73,062 hands, compared with 6040 hand last Friday; last week, Shanghai aluminum showed a narrow oscillation finishing trend. The main Shanghai aluminum 601 contract remained within the range of 17120-17360 to maintain its oscillatory consolidation trend. Friday's closing price was reported at 17,230 yuan, up 20 yuan from last Friday, and the market was quiet. Cause of the trend: 1. The linkage between domestic and foreign metal price movements is still one of the key factors leading the price movement of Shanghai copper. Under the influence of weaker copper oscillations in the first half of the week, Shanghai Copper also witnessed a similar oscillation market. It was in the market on Thursday. Under the stimulation of good news, London Copper closed at over 4000 US dollars for the first time, and the sharp rise in domestic spot prices also led to a sharp rise in Shanghai copper prices; 2. In terms of the spot market: On the domestic non-ferrous metals spot market in the Yangtze River on Friday, copper was quoted at RMB 38,700-,389,000/ton, up RMB 550/ton from the price on Thursday, and China Copper’s spot market price was RMB 39,020/ton at the closing price of copper. It rose 520 yuan/ton on Thursday.