The extremes must be reversed.
The rapid growth of car sales in the past few years has always been a hidden danger. By the end of 2016, the number of newly registered vehicles in the country reached 27.52 million, with a total of 194 million vehicles. By the end of 2017, the number of car ownership in the country soared to 217 million, an increase of 11.85%. The increase in sales overdraft in the past few years has ushered in a point of decline in 2018.
Jin Jiuyin 10 also can't stop the sales of the decline
Jin Jiuyin 10 has arrived, but the 4S stores of major auto brands have been much colder than before. According to the latest August sales data, the sales of narrow-seat passenger cars reached 1.734 million, a year-on-year increase of -7.4%. Car sales in the three major segments also fell across the board, with car sales of 893,000 units, up -5.9% year-on-year; SUV sales of 717,000 units, up -8.5% year-on-year; MPV sales of 125,000 units, up -10.8% year-on-year. The only high-energy growth due to the small base is the new energy passenger car, which sold 82,000 units in August, a year-on-year increase of 59.6%.
The auto market is on a downward trend, and automakers are not too good. The top ten automakers in the series, only FAW-Volkswagen, Geely Auto, Dongfeng Nissan, Beijing Hyundai, and FAW Toyota maintained positive growth. Among them, only Geely Automobile is considered to maintain rapid growth, and the rest are in a state of slight growth.
Compared with the bright situation of the sedan market, SUV models have ushered in a rare obstacle. Among the top 10 models in terms of sales volume, only Dongfeng Nissan's hackers and Qijun maintained positive growth, and the rest of the models fell completely, and the decline was unstoppable. The days of cars are relatively better. In the past, the sales of the brand new brand LaVida, Sylphy, Corolla, Sagitar, Emgrand, Civic and Magotan all have obvious growth. Consumers who are unpredictable in car purchases are now more inclined to cars.
As for the decline in MPV sales, it’s no surprise that the models that performed well in January-August this year are basically only Song MAX, Buick GL8, Aili, Odyssey, and the cheap MPV is not safe because of its safety, and the design is too low. The market has accelerated its abandonment.
Is it a return to rational consumption, or is consumption degradation affecting purchasing power? Or is it limited to limit purchases that have greatly hurt consumers' buying enthusiasm? Under various complicated factors, the decline in automobile sales is difficult to stop. Automobile consumption in first- and second-tier cities is saturated, and there are still large excavation spaces in third- and fourth-tier cities. As long as market demand is still there, the scale of automobile production will not collapse overnight. And to the rational consumers who value the cost performance, as long as the product is good enough, the gold nine silver ten offers are enough, why can't you come to a wave of effective promotion?
The dealer is the first to hold
The days of car dealerships are gone forever. According to the China Automobile Circulation Association, the car dealer inventory warning index for July 2018 was 53.9%; the August inventory warning index was 52.2%, which continued to be above the warning line. This year, for 8 consecutive months, it is higher than the warning line. It can be imagined that the overall operation of the dealers has fallen into a more embarrassing situation. According to incomplete statistics, more than 30% of dealers in the first eight months of this year were at a loss.
Car dealers have a lot of inventory pressure, and automakers have a large number of new cars on the market, and more and more stocks are piled up. The dealers’ days are getting more and more difficult. Although the terminal has a large discount to attract users to buy a car, the dealers hope to sell less cars and more owners to provide after-sales service. Selling a car doesn't make money, which is no secret between the industry and the owner.
The only dealers who can still laugh, I am afraid that only Japanese brands and a few luxury car brands such as BBA and Lexus, more dealers are worried about the crisis of the capital chain break. In recent years, there have been many news reports that dealers have closed their doors and dealers have defended their rights. At the end of July, 17 Zhongtai dealers went to Zhongtai's door in the production base of Linyi, Shandong Province, and pulled up a banner with the printed words of “Zhongtai Auto Rogue Enterprise.â€
Dealers' frequent rights protection is not an isolated case. The auto parts manufacturing industry is also affected by automobile sales, and the overall profit has declined. In 2017, the profit of the whole vehicle manufacturing industry increased by 0.7%, while the profit growth of the spare parts manufacturing industry was only 13.7%, down 4.7% year-on-year. As the profit of the spare parts manufacturing industry accounts for about 40% of the total profit of the industry, the loss of profits from the manufacturing of the whole vehicle will inevitably affect the spare parts manufacturing industry. Therefore, car dealers are the first to stand up, the next one must be the OEM and spare parts suppliers, no one can be alone.
Is the domino effect of the automotive industry really unstoppable?
No one knows what would be the last straw in the auto industry, but the overcapacity of cars and the balance between automakers and dealers are key.
According to the relevant data released by the China Automobile Association, as of the end of 2017, the annual production capacity of Chinese automakers includes about 64 million vehicles under construction capacity, while the actual production capacity of the year was only about 29 million, which indicates that the capacity utilization rate is not More than 50%. However, the capacity utilization rate is not high, which is related to the fact that some car companies have blindly expanded their production capacity and are overly optimistic about the sales situation. According to relevant data, there are serious overcapacity in brands including Qoros Auto, Tianjin FAW, Beijing Auto, Mustang Auto, Huatai Auto and Bixin Auto.
As for how to solve the problem of overcapacity, it requires a lot of efforts. On the one hand, automakers should develop products that are more attractive to consumers and improve their competitiveness. On the other hand, they will let consumers have money, use consumption-driven growth to expand domestic demand, and slow down autocapacity. In addition, consumers can make purchases through more sophisticated auto credit. Of course, the most important thing is that automakers should rationally plan production capacity, avoid blind expansion, and enter a benign development. At present, huge social resources are being wasted, and it is extremely urgent to solve the problem of overcapacity. Before actually crushing the camel, it must act.
The contradiction between auto manufacturers and dealers is concentrated on the excessive inventory pressure, the lack of distributors' right to speak, and the demand for rebates from auto manufacturers. How to improve this problem, which involves the distribution of benefits, both manufacturers to put down the attitude and dealer communication, and seek long-term development, dealers must also identify the profit point.
“Self-rescue†has become the key word of the auto industry in 2018, and the more severe “winter†is still behind. Under the domino effect of the automotive industry, no matter whether it is an automaker, a spare parts supplier or a car dealer, no exception is made.è¶The last straw has not crushed the camel. Before the biggest crisis has yet to come, let’s wake up!
Xiaoxian RuiYi Commercial Trade Co.,Limited , https://www.ryaluplate.com