In the first half of this year, there were five typhoons in the northwestern Pacific and the South China Sea, and three landed in China, with a large number of landings, weak landing intensity, early landing, and early influence in the north.
It is estimated that 19 to 21 typhoons will be generated in the northwestern Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea in the second half of this year, which is less than the same period of the previous year (23), with 6-8 landings in China, more than normal (6); typhoon during the summer The activities are concentrated, and the autumn is less; in the summer, there may be typhoons deep into the area north of the Yangtze River, and the impact is more serious. It is expected that there will be a typhoon in the northwestern Pacific around July 5, which may affect China's south or southeast coast around the 9th.
It is recommended that the coastal areas fully prepare for the prevention of Taiwan, increase the investigation of hidden dangers, improve the anti-Taiwan plan, and avoid or mitigate the impacts and hazards caused by typhoons, heavy winds and storm surges.
First, the first half of this year, landing in China, the typhoon is too early
(1) In the first half of this year, the number of typhoons in the western Pacific and South China Sea was higher, the source was westward, and the intensity was weak.
The number of generations is slightly more. In the first half of this year, there were five typhoons generated in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, and the number of generations was slightly higher than the average annual average (4.6).
The source of the source is west. Judging from the distribution of typhoon-producing sources, the five typhoons in the first half of this year were generated in the South China Sea and the waters around the Philippines, and the source of production was significantly westward from normal years.
The intensity is weak. One of the five typhoons generated in the first half of this year (“Sangdaâ€) reached the intensity of typhoon (central wind ≥ 32.7 m / s) and two were strong tropical storms (“Averyâ€, “Mi Leiâ€). Two tropical storms ("Sally" and "Hippo"), the average extreme intensity of five typhoons is 11 (31 m / s), the average extreme intensity of typhoons compared to normal years (12, 36.6 m) / sec) is weak.
(2) The number of typhoons landing in China in the first half of this year was large, and the initial landings were early, affecting the early morning.
The number of logins is too large and the landing strength is weak. In the first half of this year, a total of three typhoons landed in China's coastal areas (schedule), and the number of landings was significantly higher than the average annual average (0.8), and the landing rate was as high as 60%, more than three times that of the same period of the previous year (16.23%). In the first half of this year, the maximum landing intensity of the three landing typhoons was 9 (23 m / s), and the average intensity of the typhoon landing was 8 (20.3 m / s), which is the average intensity of the typhoon landing in the same period of the year (11, 32.5 m). / sec) is significantly weaker. Three landing typhoons led to the closure of the airport, the passenger rolling boat was suspended, and floods occurred in parts of the eastern coast. Seven people died in "Sally Jia". However, overall, due to timely and effective defensive measures taken across the coast, the impact of typhoon disasters in the first half of this year was relatively light.
In addition, the No. 1 strong tropical storm "Avery" and the No. 2 super typhoon "Sangda" have not landed in China, but they have brought certain wind and rain effects to Taiwan and nearby sea areas.
The initial landing is early, affecting the early morning. Tropical Storm "Sally", which landed on Shantou, Guangdong Province on June 11, was the first typhoon to land in China in 2011, 19 days earlier than the average annual landing time (June 30). The No. 5 strong tropical storm "Mi Lei" landed in Rongcheng City, Shandong Province on June 26, 23 days earlier than the date of the first landing in Shandong since the meteorological record (No. 3 typhoon July 19, 1973).
Second, the typhoon landing in China in the second half of this year will still be more
It is estimated that 19 to 21 typhoons will be generated in the northwestern Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea in the second half of this year, which is less than the same period of the previous year (23), with 6-8 landings in China, more than normal (6); tropical cyclone activity in midsummer Concentration, less autumn; summer may have a typhoon deep into the north of the Yangtze River, the impact is more serious. It is expected that there will be a typhoon in the northwestern Pacific around July 5, which may affect China's south or southeast coast around the 9th.
Third, the impact on agriculture
When the typhoon landed, the wind near the center could reach 12 or above, which was enough to destroy the building houses and blow down the crops and trees, which had a great impact on agricultural production. In the past ten years, the losses caused by typhoons in China have reached more than 90 billion, of which agricultural losses accounted for 12.8%. Although the majority of the typhoon brought us disasters, the typhoon has its advantages. The favorable aspects of agriculture are as follows: First, the typhoon brings a large amount of abundant precipitation, which is very beneficial for relieving drought in arid areas, and some ponds are also stored. Second, typhoons can increase fishing production. When the typhoon hits the river, the nutrients at the bottom of the river are rolled up, the bait is increased, and the fish are attracted to gather near the water surface, and the catch is naturally increased.
Fourth, attention and recommendations
It is recommended that all coastal areas should pay close attention to typhoon monitoring and early warning information, increase hidden danger investigations, improve anti-Taiwan pre-plans, and fully prepare for anti-Taiwan prevention, so as to avoid or mitigate the impact and harm caused by typhoons caused by heavy rain, strong winds and storm surges. .
The meteorological department will closely monitor the typhoon dynamics and release forecast and warning information in a timely manner.
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