China's photovoltaic loss negotiating chip to resolve the US's second double opposition hopes for China渺茫

The APEC summit has come to an end, and the issue of the second "double opposition" between the United States and China has not become a topic.

And this may be the "ominous omen" of China's photovoltaics. Just a few weeks ago, John Smirnow, vice president of the US Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA), also predicted that if China and the United States reached a "reconciliation" similar to the "price commitment" on "double-reverse", the most suitable time for publication would be It was at the APEC summit.

At that time, John Smirnow stressed that there is little time left to resolve the contradictions. "If there is no relevant information disclosed within two weeks, then the possibility of reconciliation between China and the United States through 'price commitment' It will be greatly reduced."

According to the US plan, the US Department of Commerce will announce the final ruling on anti-dumping and countervailing of PV products in China on December 11 this year. And it is only less than a month away from it. It should be known that the second "double opposition" of the United States to China's photovoltaics will be a violation of China's photovoltaic exports of more than 3 billion US dollars.

The outcome of the negotiations depends on the chips in hand

Compared with the second "double opposition" in the United States, the most reference case is the trade war initiated by the EU in 2012 against China's PV.

After nearly a year of tug-of-war, in July 2013, this “Central European PV dispute”, which may have caused a fatal blow to China’s PV, finally promised by China that “2015, the lower price limit of China’s PV products will be Set to 0.56 euros / watt, the total amount is limited to 7 GW / year", the two sides each step to achieve a "reconciliation."

Perhaps based on the foresight of the car, and based on the operability of the "price commitment", after the United States launched a second "double opposition" to China, the domestic industry hopes and focuses on the same way (price commitment) to resolve Sino-US trade disputes.

However, as mentioned above, such hopes are getting worse.

"It must be recognized that the 'reconciliation' of the Sino-European PV dispute is by no means the result of their own courtesy. It is because the amount of bargaining chips is sufficient." A person familiar with the rules of international trade stressed to the "Securities Daily" reporter that "actually It was the two cards in our hands that eventually forced the opponent back to the negotiating table. One was anti-dumping against EU red wine; the other was anti-dumping against EU polysilicon.

This is indeed the case. On the day when the Ministry of Commerce officially announced a “double-reverse” investigation of EU wines, French President Hollande asked the EU to formulate a unified trade policy toward China. At the time, the media analyzed that Hollande’s statement meant that he had fully felt the pressure from domestic Portuguese farmers; in addition to wine, in November 2012, China’s Ministry of Commerce also had anti-dumping and anti-dumping against solar-grade polysilicon originating in the European Union. Subsidy investigation. This is another card held by China PV.

There are also cards in dealing with the beauty of "double opposition"

As for the second "double opposition" of the United States to China, China's photovoltaics originally had a card.

In 2012, before the Ministry of Commerce conducted anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on solar-grade polysilicon originating in the European Union, it launched an anti-dumping investigation on imported solar-grade polysilicon originating in the United States and South Korea and its origin in the United States. Imported solar-grade polysilicon countervailing investigation.

On January 20, 2014, after a detailed investigation, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China implemented a trade remedy measure of “53.3%-57% anti-dumping duty on US-imported solar-grade polysilicon”; after that, solar-grade polysilicon was suspended on August 14. The processing trade import business application acceptance (“No. 58 Document” is equivalent to temporarily prohibiting the import of solar grade polysilicon by processing trade).

According to the “No. 58 Document” issued by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs, the reason for temporarily prohibiting the import of solar grade polysilicon by processing trade is because China imported solar grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea on January 20, 2014 and 2014. After the trade remedy measures for the import of solar grade polysilicon from the EU on May 1st, the import of polysilicon under the processing trade in China has surged."

The industry generally believes that "No. 58 text" is a remedy. As a result, the trade remedy measures for the United States to import 53.3%-57% anti-dumping duties on solar-grade polysilicon can really generate deterrence, by forcing the US polysilicon giants to force them to lobby the government and the industry in the United States. Concession in the second "double opposition" of China PV.

"This strategy is logical. Only polysilicon companies in the US may have an impact on 'double', because battery components companies and SolarWorld are in the same position. For example, SunPower, FirstSolar, etc. hope that the US government will prevent Chinese PV products from entering its market. A person in the photovoltaic industry told the "Securities Daily" reporter that "Hemelock is a large-scale chemical enterprise group with more than 60 years of history in the United States. It is the world's largest polysilicon enterprise in the semiconductor era over Germany's WACKER. At the US industry and government level." The influence is huge."

Self-contradictory "double-reverse" fighter delay

However, the effectiveness of this card is now being lost or even exhausted.

A few days ago, the report of the Silicon Industry Branch of the Nonferrous Association showed that the total amount of polysilicon imports in China in September 2014 was 9,942 tons, an increase of 18.7% from the previous month, a record high! Among them, 1,698 tons were imported from the United States according to the processing trade, accounting for 90% of the total US imports, that is, except for 189 tons of semiconductor polysilicon that is not within the scope of anti-dumping, other solar-grade polysilicon is 100% of the processing trade method that can evade anti-dumping duties. import!

"Securities Daily" once reported that "in the two weeks after the publication of 'No. 58' (August 14-August 29), the grassroots departments rushed to approve a large number of processing trade applications, which caused even the management to "suspend" Importing solar-grade polysilicon by processing trade, China's solar-grade polysilicon imported from the United States in September is still 100% imported by processing trade.

“Some key enterprises (local support targets) have obtained 'special treatment', for example, they may have drilled the '58th text' and enjoy the double use of 'enterprise as management unit' and 'can be executed within the validity period of the contract' Treatment." A person familiar with the matter told the "Securities Daily" reporter that "the grassroots department has approved the import of polysilicon processing trade in the two weeks to reach more than 100,000 tons! This exceeds the total import volume in any previous year. Some contract terms even Crossing December 31 (the '58' text on the deadline for the implementation of the contract for enterprises with network management companies with the management unit), the longest is until August 2015.

The chain reaction triggered by this is that US polysilicon companies can continue to dump into China through processing trade. The total import volume of 100,000 tons of processing trade approved by the assault is equivalent to the US company's one-year market demand guarantee from China. This has earned valuable time for its deployed strategy adjustments (for the future failure to dump against China). More critically, if REC, Hemolock, etc. no longer feel pressure, there is no need to lobby the US government to “relax” Chinese PV companies.

According to the "Securities Daily" reporters, this year, REC has signed contracts with three new US customers such as SolarCity. It even expects that the demand in the US market will grow at an average annual rate of 27% from 2013 to 2016; Hemlock is also in the third quarter of this year. The first to maintain sales momentum. Its parent company, Dow Corning, reported revenue of $1.52 billion, up 7% from 2013. Net income was $109 million, compared to $28 million in the same period last year; Wacker Chemie, Germany, still achieved third-quarter profit and tax pre-profit margins from the second quarter of this year, based on ongoing maintenance of some polysilicon facilities. The quarter's 32.2% increased to 71.4%.

"Perhaps this is the reason why the United States has made a double "double" against China's photovoltaics, and ultimately failed to become an APEC issue." The above-mentioned industry sources told reporters that "it seems that we are launching polysilicon against the United States, The threat to its industry is minimal. The reason is that China's PV industry can't work together in the upstream and downstream. Downstream companies only consider their own interests, and worry about prohibiting the import of overseas polysilicon, which will lead to rising costs. For various reasons, it is difficult for us to form a consensus within us. Time has delayed the fighters. In contrast, foreign companies know that they can use the contradictions between Chinese companies to strategically prevent the Chinese government from taking measures. The United States will put aside disputes and unanimously.

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