Methanol prices oscillate down

Downstream demand continued to slump, and the price of methanol oscillated down

In November, the methanol company saw the suspension of equipment maintenance, which made the price more stable. However, the price of methanol in the northwest region was reduced, which impacted prices in other regions. In December, the downstream demand remained weak, and it is expected that the methanol in December will remain stable and weak, suggesting short-term rallies above the 60-day moving average.

I. Review of the methanol market in November In the methanol market, in early November, the methanol production plant was partially overhauled, and transportation traffic control was carried out in the northwestern region, resulting in difficulties in the shipment of methanol, and the overall price of methanol methanol was stable. In mid-November, the Northwest The rain and snow weather in the area has increased and the installation has begun. Northwestern manufacturers have greatly reduced their sales prices in order to boost sales. In late November, methanol sideways digested early-stage bad news.

Methanol spot: In November, the price of methanol in Jiangsu was stable, while in the northwest, the price of methanol increased due to rain and snow, causing manufacturers to significantly reduce their sales. The spot price was lowered by RMB 100/ton. Imported methanol also followed the domestic spot price change of methanol, and the methanol CIF also fell around RMB 100/ton.

Second, the influencing factors analysis (a) of the international macroeconomic environment, after several rounds of European Finance Ministers negotiations, Greece has now received a new round of aid funds, although the euro group ** Juncker said that the pen's aid will make Greece's The debt issue is on the road to sustainability. However, according to the outcome of the meeting, it was only after so many rounds of negotiations that an agreement was reached that the European Treasurer may have greater controversy. There are doubts as to whether the various indicators of the Greek economy can meet the standards.

Domestically, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.2% in October 2012, up 0.4% from the previous month, and re-emerged on the Yurong Line, suggesting that the domestic economy has shown signs of recovery; the national consumer price level in October (CPI) increased by 1.7% year-on-year, 0.2% down from the previous month, and the growth rate of CPI slowed. The current economic recovery is still far away. The market expects the central bank may lower its level, but the current central bank continues to implement reverse repurchases. A large number of people want to put funds into the market, which makes the expectation of lowering the expectation weaken. On the whole, the central bank is still dominated by a quantitative type of regulation and control tools, and it is unlikely that the RRR will be lowered.

(II) Analysis of supply and demand of upstream coal In October, China's raw coal output reached 273.07 million tons, an increase of 21.1% year-on-year and a 3.8% increase from the previous month; from January to October in 2012, the total coal output reached 2.417 trillion tons, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year. At present, Shanxi, the largest coal-producing province in China, is still pushing for the consolidation of its small coal mines, which limits Shanxi's coal production. However, the current consumption of coal is in peak season, and coal mining companies will also start more active. It is expected that the raw coal production in November will decline month-on-month, but the total output of raw coal is still increasing.

At the end of October, China’s social coal inventories stood at 368 million tons, down 5 million tons from September, and an increase of 73.81 million tons from the same period last year.

Overall, social coal stocks have fallen overall, but they are still at a relatively high level. The coal sales and marketing association’s sales data for October showed that coal sales in October were 316 million tons, which was the fourth consecutive monthly decline since June 2012. Overall, coal sales are not very satisfactory. With the advent of winter, the demand for coal will also be driven by it, but it will not take much. Therefore, the total amount of social coal inventory will not change substantially.

(3) Analysis of methanol supply In October, refined methanol production in China was 2.168 million tons, a decrease of 240,900 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 10% from the previous period; it increased by 432,400 tons from the same period last year and increased by 24.91% from the same period last year. The production of methanol in October experienced a substantial decline, mainly due to the suspension of production and maintenance of methanol in Henan and other regions, which led to an overall decline in overall production in October. At the same time, the lack of downstream demand was another factor. Taking into account the overall downstream demand for methanol in November is still in a sluggish trend, it is expected that the overall operating rate of methanol in November will not rise, production is probably around 2 million tons.

In October, methanol imports amounted to 473,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 104,200 tons, an increase of 22.03% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 64,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.92%. Imports of methanol increased significantly in October, mainly due to difficulties in the export of methanol in the northwestern region. However, the price of imported methanol has fallen again, leading traders to think that the import of methanol is more convenient. It is expected that in November, imported methanol will drop slightly, maintaining at around 400,000 tons.

In October, the inventory of East China Sea methanol was 490,000 tons, an increase of 8.89% from the previous month and an increase of 28.95% year-on-year. This is due to the continuous increase in the inventory of methanol East China Port since July 2012.

In general, in the month of December, the methanol in the domestic market continued to intensify with the resumption of the methanol plant and the relatively high inventory of ports. In the fourth quarter of the year, new methanol plants were launched. However, with new production capacity increasing, generally speaking, it is not yet possible to achieve the ability to produce products immediately. There will be a production process, so the impact of new production facilities will be slowly reflected. .

(IV) Downstream demand analysis 1. Formaldehyde The United States launched a “double counter” survey on Chinese hardwood and decorative plywood to curb downstream plate market demand, which affected the overall start-up load of manufacturers in Shandong and inland areas to fall to 5-5.5%. , Hebei Province, started low, the price has dropped 50-100 yuan / ton in varying degrees of decline, to take the goods on behalf of the price promotion. At present, in the season of renovation, the demand for domestic steel sheets has increased, and the overall load in East China and Jiangsu has increased slightly, probably between 5 and 70%. The stocks in southern China and Fujian are low. It is expected that under the stimulation of the traditional decoration season in December, the sheet companies will be expected to go bankrupt and the company’s financial pressure will decrease slightly. However, high sheet stocks or reduced formaldehyde demand. Overall, the demand for formaldehyde will not substantially improve in December, and overall demand will remain weak.

2. Glacial acetic acid The domestic glacial acetic acid market continued to be sluggish and gloomy. Mainly due to the weakness of downstream products, the demand for raw materials was limited. As a result, the buyers on the market were mainly wait-and-see, and the intention of receiving goods was not positive enough; In terms of continued downturn, the cost has been reduced, but the price support has also declined. At present, the overall operating rate of the glacial acetic acid plant in the country is maintained at about 7 percent, the operating rate has increased, and combined with sluggish sales, the company’s inventory has increased. It is expected that glacial acetic acid will remain in an overcast trend in December.

3. Dimethyl Ether Dimethyl Ether Supply and Demand is a watershed before and after the meeting. The company is restricted by transportation and the supply of goods cannot be flowed. The manufacturers are forced to limit the production and reduction. After the meeting, the peripheral manufacturers increase the load one after another, but the cycle A gap has occurred, leading to tight supply in some regions. Hebei's manufacturers have actively raised prices by a margin of 50-100 yuan/ton. In the later period, the supply of goods in the market has increased, and raw materials have fallen. Prices have dropped. The overall operating rate of dimethyl ether increased by about 0.6% from last month, and the amplitude was limited. However, the current dimethyl ether profit is low, and the enthusiasm of enterprises to start construction is not high. The output of dimethyl ether in November is expected to be higher than that in October. The output was slightly higher, and the output in December remained basically the same as in November.

Third, the outlook outlook (A) Technical Analysis Methanol 1301 contract experience after the early fall, to maintain the momentum of weakness in the low position, the market is expected to short-term methanol 1305 contract and methanol 1305 contract or rebound test 60-day moving average. The methanol 1301 contract is supported at 2650 and the methanol 1305 contract is supported at 2600. Investors are advised to go short on the rally above the 60-day moving average.

(II) Summary of views In the fourth quarter of 2012, the expansion capacity of methanol in the venue was about 2 million tons. The shutdown maintenance manufacturers restarted their work and supply will increase. At present, the spot price of coal is in the upward shift, supporting the cost of methanol; the downstream products still maintain the downturn trend, among which, due to the high inventory level of formaldehyde enterprises, the downstream real estate demand is not high, and the operating rate is low; the dimethyl ether market is suffering from low profits. The operating rate of enterprises is not high; the glacial acetic acid market is poorly sold and the overall operation is weak.