Abstract In the first half of this year, the non-ferrous metals industry as a whole was running smoothly and there were signs of continued stabilization. In the second half of the year, the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to continue to maintain a stable operation, but the factors that restrict the stability of the industry are still relatively high. The downward pressure is still relatively large, and the operating difficulties of some enterprises will be intensified...
In the first half of this year, the non-ferrous metals industry as a whole was running smoothly and there were signs of continued stabilization. In the second half of the year, the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to continue to maintain a stable operation. However, the factors that restrict the stability of the industry are still relatively high. The downward pressure is still relatively large, and the operating difficulties of some enterprises will be intensified. Under the multiple backgrounds of three phases of superposition, overcapacity, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the low price of international commodity prices, the price trend of non-ferrous metals continued to differentiate. Oversupply will continue
According to the analysis of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the development of China's non-ferrous metal industry has entered a period of strategic adjustment. The development faces a series of problems such as peak consumption, severe overcapacity, declining investment growth, urgent transformation and upgrading, intensified international competition, and worrying quality and efficiency. .
The global oversupply of non-ferrous metals caused by overcapacity is not a partial phenomenon, but covers all aspects of the mining, smelting and processing industry chain. Under the current market structure, the growth of consumption cannot keep up with the growth of production. Unless the lack of competitive production capacity exits the market on a large scale, the market difficulties will be difficult to change. As a direct reflection of market supply and demand, the weak price trend of non-ferrous metals is inevitable. At the same time, judging from the macroeconomic situation, the strength of the US dollar has also exerted downward pressure on the price of non-ferrous metals in the international market. Therefore, the price of non-ferrous metals in the domestic and foreign markets will remain weak for one or two years. In the recent period, the prices of copper and aluminum in the domestic and foreign markets continued to fall, which is the embodiment of this situation.
The current rigid increase in production costs in the non-ferrous metals industry is putting pressure on industrial operations. The rigid rise in costs such as environmental protection, financing, and labor is a common problem facing the global non-ferrous metals industry. In particular, China, as the world's largest producer of non-ferrous metals, faces greater pressure. Since 2015, in the general decline in the market price of non-ferrous metals, the total operating cost has increased, from January to May, a year-on-year increase of 2%. Among them, financial expenses increased by 6.9% year-on-year; corporate management expenses increased by 2.6% year-on-year; business operating expenses increased by 7.9%.
With the oversupply of the market, the world's major non-ferrous metal producers have adopted a series of measures to ensure their respective market share, resulting in more intense competition. Under this circumstance, the trend of decline in the comparative advantage of China's non-ferrous metals industry has been unable to be avoided. on the one hand. International non-ferrous metals trade frequently, not only have traditional "anti-dumping and counter-subsidy", but developed countries also adopt measures to improve product technical standards and humane standards to prevent Chinese products from entering. On the other hand, with the domestic resource and environmental carrying capacity approaching or reaching the upper limit, the non-ferrous metal industry has become a major industry that consumes more energy and has a higher emissions of “three wastesâ€.
Strategic opportunity period is expected to appear
Despite the increasing difficulties facing the development of the industry, important strategic development opportunities have gradually emerged. "Made in China 2025" has been released. As a strategic plan with far-reaching guiding significance for China's future development, it will certainly have important guiding significance for the development of non-ferrous metals industry and provide an important opportunity for industrial development.
China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association believes that China's economic development has entered a new normal, and the development environment of the non-ferrous metal industry has undergone major changes, and it is at an important turning point. This has created favorable conditions for proposing strategic and innovative development ideas, tasks, goals and measures. As long as the non-ferrous metals industry emphasizes the concept of “innovative development, green development, high-end development, global development, and sustainable developmentâ€, the industry can completely open up new development space by breaking through the three constraints of “overcapacity, technology level, and resource environmentâ€. .
At present, China is still the largest developing country in the world. The comprehensive development level, especially the innovation ability, labor productivity, and social welfare level, is still far from the developed countries. Some indicators are even lower than some developing countries. Currently, it is in the stage of industrial upgrading and growth kinetic energy conversion.
Since the beginning of this year, China's economic performance has been generally stable, stable and positive, and market confidence has increased. In particular, the pace of structural adjustment has accelerated, and the proportion of the service industry has exceeded half. New products, new formats, and new business models have emerged. In the first five months of this year, online retail sales increased by 38.5%. In May, the output of new energy vehicles and industrial robots increased by 2.8 times and 1.3 times respectively. Large-scale population migration, agglomeration and settlement means the purchase and renewal of huge consumer goods, which means the construction of huge urban hardware and software facilities. The various types of consumption driven by this will create huge market demand for non-ferrous metals. The industry is forming a positive.
Limited benefit improvement in the second half of the year
For the operation of the non-ferrous metals industry in the second half of the year, the basic judgment of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is that production is growing steadily, the pace of adjustment is accelerating, market prices are weak, and efficiency is limited.
From January to May this year, the output of 10 non-ferrous metals in China was 20.71 million tons, an increase of 8.7%. It is expected that in the second half of the year, non-ferrous metal production will continue to maintain a steady growth trend, with a growth rate of around 8% for the whole year and a total output of 50 million tons. However, due to the overcapacity problem, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the non-ferrous metals industry has slowed down noticeably. From January to May, China's non-ferrous metal industry completed a fixed asset investment of 216.3 billion yuan, basically the same as the same period last year. It is expected that in the second half of the year, the investment in fixed assets of the non-ferrous metals industry will remain insufficient, and the overall investment scale will increase slightly from the previous year.
Since 2015, the prices of non-ferrous metals in domestic and foreign markets have continued to fluctuate downward. From January to May this year, the average spot price of copper in the domestic market was 43,315 yuan/ton, down 12.2% year-on-year; the average spot price of aluminum was 13040 yuan/ton, down 1.2% year-on-year; the average spot price of lead was 12846 yuan/ton, down 4.6% year-on-year; The average price of zinc spot was 16,587 yuan / ton, up 8.5% year-on-year. It is expected that in the second half of the year, the prices of major non-ferrous metals will still be difficult to change, and the price of copper and aluminum in the domestic market may fall even more.
Since the beginning of this year, despite the complicated market environment, the profits of the non-ferrous metals industry have generally increased. From January to May, the enterprises above designated size achieved a profit of 52.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%. In particular, the aluminum industry has experienced a turnaround after experiencing losses for the entire industry for more than two consecutive years. However, the basis for this loss-making is not yet stable, and it is expected that the benefits of the non-ferrous metal industry will be significantly improved throughout the year.
At present, the keynote of China's non-ferrous metal import and export policy is to restrict exports, including prohibiting the processing trade of raw materials, levying export tariffs on smelted products, artificially separating the organic links between domestic and foreign markets, and weakening the ability of domestic enterprises to participate in international competition. The smuggling activities have been repeatedly banned.
To this end, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association recommended that the relevant departments should create a policy environment conducive to supporting enterprises to participate in international competition, and propose to cancel all export tariffs on non-ferrous metal products; conditionally liberalize some non-ferrous metal processing trades for Chinese enterprises. Create conditions for fair participation in international competition.
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