According to the statistics of the German Machine Tool Manufacturers Association (VDW), in the first quarter of 2010, with the gradual recovery of the global economy, the German machine tool industry also showed a certain degree of recovery. In the first quarter, orders from the German machine tool industry increased by 43% year-on-year. The growth rate of overseas orders was particularly obvious, but the industry still performed poorly in terms of output value, consumption and import and export trade, and the year-on-year data continued to decline.
First, the output value and consumption are still significantly reduced
In the first quarter of 2010, the gross output value of German machine tools (including metal processing machine output, machine tool accessories output and machine tool installation, repair and maintenance costs) was 1.87 billion euros, still 29% lower than the 2.636 billion euros in the same period in 2009. If the cost of machine tool installation, repair and maintenance is removed, the German machine tool production value in the first quarter was 1.73 billion euros, a year-on-year decrease of 29%. In 2009, the total value of German machine tools was 10.18 billion euros, a 28% drop from the industry's highest historical level of 14.179 billion euros in 2008. Due to the sharp drop in production value, Germany's world's number one machine value (in particular, the value of metal processing machine tools) maintained in Germany in 2009 was replaced by China.
In terms of consumption, in the first quarter, the domestic consumption of German machine tools was 994 million euros, a significant drop of 40% compared with 1.649 billion euros in the same period of 2009, indicating that the domestic demand for machine tools in Germany has shrunk sharply under the impact of the financial crisis. Significant recovery.
Second, overseas orders pick up faster than domestic orders
In the first quarter of 2010, German machine tool orders totaled 2.02 billion euros, an increase of 43% from the 1.415 billion euros in the same period in 2009. Among them, local orders were 680 million euros, up 25% from 545 million euros in the same period in 2009; overseas orders were 1.34 billion euros, a significant increase of 54% from 870 million euros in the same period in 2009. In the year of 2009, German machine tool orders shrank to less than half of 2008 levels, with German domestic orders dropping more than 60%. Due to the technological superiority of German machine tools, in the context of the global economic recovery, the demand for German machine tools has increased significantly, making the pace of German overseas orders rebound much faster than the growth of local orders.
Third, the import and export trade continues to decline, only the Chinese market is growing against the trend.
In terms of import and export, in the first quarter of 2010, German machine tools (excluding machine tool installation, repair and maintenance costs) exports amounted to 1.129 billion euros, down 25% from 1.511 billion euros in the same period in 2009. Imported machine tools were 393 million euros, down 45% from 720 million euros in the same period in 2009. Since the financial crisis, German machine tool exports have fallen by more than a quarter. The only bright spot is that exports to China have always maintained growth. In recent years, China has been the largest export market for German machine tools.
In terms of machine tool export countries and regions, in the first quarter, Germany's machine tool exports to China (including machine tool accessories) was 292 million euros, up 13% from 270 million euros in the same period in 2009, accounting for 25.9 percent of German machine tool exports. %, the share increased by 4.3 percentage points from the end of 2009, showing China's strong demand for high-end machine tools in Germany. In the first quarter, Russia surpassed the United States as the second largest exporter with an export value of EUR 68 million, a 17% drop from the €292.9 million in the same period in 2009 and an export share of 6.0%. The third largest exporter is the United States, with exports of 65 million euros, a 43% drop from the 115 million euros in the same period in 2009, and its share has fallen to 5.8%.
In terms of machine tool import countries and regions, Germany imported the largest number of machine tools from Switzerland in the first quarter, with an import value of 108 million euros, but a 34% drop from the 163 million euros in the same period in 2009, and the import share was 27.4%. Italy and Japan tied for second place with an import value of 38 million euros, but imports from Italy fell 62% from the 102 million euros in the same period in 2009. Imports from Japan also fell from 73 million euros in the same period in 2009. 47%. In the first quarter, Germany imported machinery and machinery from China by 0.18 billion euros, down 27% year-on-year, and its share rose to 4.6%.
Fourth, the capacity utilization rate has rebounded and the number of employees has fallen.
Affected by the economic crisis, the capacity utilization rate of German machine tools also plummeted. From 2005 to 2008, the capacity utilization rate of German machine tools increased steadily from 88.2% to 94.7%. However, with the outbreak of the financial crisis, capacity utilization in 2009 fell to 72.6%. In January 2010, the index fell further to 67.6%. Recently, with the increase in machine tool orders, capacity utilization has rebounded. As of April 2010, the index was 71.6%, but at a low level. It reflects that there is still a lot of idleness in the current industry equipment, and the operating rate of the company is still insufficient.
In addition, the number of German machine tools fell from the peak in October 2008 to an average of 69,614 in 2009, down 1.7% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2010, the average number of employees in the machine tool industry was 64,090, a year-on-year decrease of 11%.
According to VDW analysis, the German machine tool industry has not completely got rid of the predicament. Compared with the peak of 2008, the industry order volume is still at a low level. For most companies, liquidity is still the biggest concern, both the company itself and its customers. Another problem is the dramatic increase in loan default insurance costs. In extreme cases, the lack of liquidity will further lead to increased layoffs.
2010 will be a year of transition for the German machine tool industry. VDW expects that even if the annual demand for machine tools will maintain the level of the first quarter, the output of machine tools will not increase in 2010, and will still drop by about 12%.
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