Although exports have long been one of China's important economic growth patterns, the importance of domestic demand has never been ignored or even strengthened. "Our general policy guidance for this year's foreign trade is to stabilize exports, expand imports, and reduce surpluses." Commerce Minister Chen Deming clearly stated at a press conference held during the two sessions.
At the beginning of March, the National Bureau of Statistics released the "Statistical Bulletin on National Economic and Social Development in 2010", showing that the contribution rate of GDP growth during the year was 92.1%, and the contribution rate of net exports was 7.9%. Obviously, in order to cope with the medium- and long-term strategy of expanding domestic demand, China’s foreign trade policy will brew a new round of adjustment, and imports will gradually play an important role. The ensuing import policy will be further strengthened, including the reduction of import tariffs on various products. It also simplifies the procedures for import applications and encourages the import of luxury goods.
Export growth will not be too fast
In 2010, the total import and export of Chinese goods was 2.9728 trillion US dollars, an increase of 34.7% over the previous year. Among them, exports were 1.5779 trillion US dollars and imports were 1.3948 trillion US dollars. The annual export and import growth rates were 31.3% and 38.7%, respectively, and the trade surplus decreased by 6.4% to 183.1 billion US dollars.
At the above-mentioned press conference, Chen Deming made the judgment that the export will increase, but the increase will not be very fast.
According to statistics, in 2006, China's share of global import and export trade was only 6%-7%. By the same year, with the continuous expansion of trade status, China's share of global exports reached about 10%. Despite this, the export side cannot make a completely optimistic judgment.
Chen Deming said that the export is not based on many uncertain factors in the international arena. The hidden dangers of some sovereign debt countries and the financial system have not been eliminated. The fluctuations in the prices and exchange rates of international commodities are still relatively strong. Protectionism is also heating up, so the growth rate of international trade may decline, not as fast as it turned out. From the domestic point of view, it is also facing rising prices of raw materials, rising labor costs and shortage of some laborers; at the same time, the requirements for energy conservation and environmental protection are higher, and various cost-driven factors are also increasing.
Wei Jianguo, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and former deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce, predicted in an interview with the media: "This year China's export growth is expected to fall back to 15%-20%, while import growth may rise to around 40%. The annual trade surplus is estimated at About 70 billion US dollars."
In fact, China’s import and export growth in January far exceeded expectations, with growth rates of 51% and 37.7%, respectively. However, Wei Jianguo believes: "The foreign trade data in January is an illusion. Many orders were lasted last year. The stocks were replenished and there were more orders during the Christmas period last year. The goods have already been paid. The money will be paid in January, plus international commodities. Prices have soared and so on."
Expanding imports is imperative
"In terms of imports, we have accelerated the adjustment and optimization of the structure. At the same time, we have promoted the strategy of the free trade zone and accelerated the implementation of measures to promote import convenience. Therefore, the increase in imports this year will be faster and faster than our exports." Chen Deming Said at the above press conference.
In fact, at the regular press conference in February, Yao Jian, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, has revealed that China’s import policy will be further strengthened. “Traditionally, everyone believes that exports are the driving force for economic development. In fact, imports are The transformation of the economic structure has a significant role in promoting long-term development. With the unification of everyone's understanding, this year's import policy will be further strengthened and the trade balance will be further improved."
“In 2010, the trade surplus accounted for only about 3% of GDP, which was significantly lower. It is also within the internationally reasonable range. With the implementation of the import promotion policy this year, the trade surplus should be significantly improved on a balanced basis. It is the direction of our policy." Yao Jian said earlier.
Wei Jianguo suggested that China should raise its import expansion to a strategic level and place it as important as expanding domestic demand.
It should be noted that the import growth rate in January is faster than that of exports, and the price factor can not be underestimated. Because China's import structure, the import of consumer goods is relatively small, only about 10% of the imports of consumer goods, 40% are agricultural products, Imports of basic raw materials, mineral resources, etc.
In fact, the potential of the Chinese consumer market cannot be underestimated. In recent years, the rapid development of overseas purchasing and the vigorous development of overseas travel shopping are enough to prove.
Chen Deming said that domestic high-end consumer goods increased by 23% last year, and the number of people who consume these high-end products overseas increased by 30%. "So we expect that the demand for high-end consumer goods in China's more than 1.3 billion people is now second in the world, slightly lower than Japan. It is expected that such consumption may exceed Japan by 2015, and it will even become the world's largest and largest consumer goods. country."
"Rather than letting Chinese people take money to buy luxury goods overseas, it is better to lower tariffs and reduce logistics costs. This is also to contribute to the expansion of domestic demand." Wei Jianguo believed that China should change the old-fashioned restrictions on foreign trade policy awards, and From the policy package all-round.
Vice Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan also said that China will adopt a series of measures this year to stimulate imports, including adjusting tariffs on certain types of goods and further simplifying administrative procedures. He said in December last year that China should expand its foreign investment and seek a balance of foreign trade by expanding imports rather than suppressing exports.
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