On March 3, 2011, the fourth session of the 11th National People's Congress will be opened in the afternoon. Given the market's high concern, I also took the opportunity to talk about what policies might be introduced after this year's **, and what impact it might have on the future steel market.
I. Review of the Contents of the 2010 Government Work Report On March 5, 2010, the Third Session of the Eleventh National People's Congress was opened at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council made government work to all delegates at the meeting. report. After reading through the contents of the next report, it is simply divided into two parts. The first part is a summary and review of the government work in 2009, and the latter part is the arrangement and outlook of the government work in 2010. The author here mainly wants to review the overall arrangements and plans for 2010 government work in the 2010 government work report.
The report pointed out that in 2010, we must focus on eight areas of work, and I will not repeat them here. However, the author would like to make a simple analysis of the work arrangements involved in or affecting the steel market.
1. Improve the level of macroeconomic regulation and control to maintain stable and rapid economic development. This includes continuing to implement aggressive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. This set the tone for the economic development in 2010 from a macro point of view, and also confirmed the macro background of the development of the steel market in 2010, that is, the capital aspect as a whole is more relaxed, which favors the steel market.
2. Accelerate the transformation of economic development methods and adjust and optimize the economic structure. This mainly includes the promotion of key industries to adjust and rejuvenate, promote mergers and acquisitions of enterprises, eliminate backward production capacity and fight energy saving and emission reduction. When it comes to promoting mergers and acquisitions, elimination of backwardness, and energy-saving emission reduction, people who are familiar with the 2010 steel market are not unfamiliar with these words. 2010 is the year of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†and the year of the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€. The “energy saving and emission reduction†craze that began in late July and early August 2010 has a direct impact on the steel market: Since the mid-July of the year, when the price of steel products has begun to rebound in the downward trend and the market is still discussing vigorously whether this indecisive steel price is likely to turn into a reversal, its arrival has given the market players a clear direction. . China's emission reduction commitments at the Copenhagen climate change summit at the end of 2009: reduce the carbon emission intensity (on the basis of 2005) by 45% by 2020; decrease the energy consumption per unit of GDP by 19.6% during the 11th five-year period; The goal of 14.38%) has given the Chinese government great pressure. The 2010 energy saving and emission reduction is particularly critical under these dual pressures. It also makes the implementation of the policy particularly urgent and strict. This directly led to the soaring of steel prices.
3. Increase the overall development of urban and rural areas and strengthen the foundation for agricultural and rural development.
4. Unswervingly advance reforms and further expand opening to the outside world. This includes a sound financial system to deal with the impact of the international financial crisis, stabilizing and developing foreign trade.
5, efforts to protect and improve people's livelihood and promote social harmony and progress. The main contents include: to expand employment; to speed up the improvement of the system; to reform the income distribution system; to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market; to accelerate the reform of health care; to do a good job in population and family planning work.
Among the above three, a sound financial system, stable and stable employment and social stability, healthy import and export trade, etc., are all external conditions and guarantees conducive to the healthy operation of the steel market, while agricultural infrastructure construction and the real estate market are stable. To a certain extent, development has ensured and boosted the demand of the steel market, which is conducive to the development of steel products. Second, the “hot spot†inventory of 2011 ** is about to be held in the near future. Netizens are hotly discussing the hot spots that will be discussed this year. Major websites also initiate such related investigations. Then, on the basis of sorting, the author carries out the following comprehensive inventory of relevant “hot spots†in various online media, mainly reflected in the following aspects: maintaining the stability of economic development, continuing the myth of China’s economic growth, and accelerating the construction of affordable housing, Establish an effective system to stabilize prices, cool down the property market, divide wealth and cakes, increase residents' incomes, reform income distribution system, increase anti-corruption efforts, promote judicial justice, increase employment opportunities, and promote employment equity; Primary medical reform mechanism.
The above hot spots show that the majority of the people are more concerned about the people’s livelihood. Although the people’s voice has been shouted to a large extent, the comparison with the government’s work arrangements in 2010 has, to some extent, demonstrated the limitations of the public’s attention. In view of this, the author wants to combine the hot spots in 2011 and the work arrangements in 2010 to make simple inferences and predictions about the likely impact of the 2011 steel market policies.
III. Impact of possible policies on the steel market after **1. Macro-control policies:
The National Financial Work Conference at the end of December 2010 and the People's Bank of China Working Conference at the beginning of January 2011 have already made basic adjustments to the 2011 adjustments: In 2011, China’s economy will be transformed into a stable growth phase by the rapid rise from policy stimulus. We will continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and sound monetary policies. What is worth noting here is that monetary policy has shifted from moderately loose monetary policy at the beginning of 2010 to “robust†or “neutral,†and three interest rate increases since 2010 and uninterrupted increases in reserve ratios are also reflected from the side. This point.
Under this macroscopic background, the author expects that there should not be major changes in the macroeconomic regulation and control policy, and that it should be based on the continued implementation of proactive fiscal policies and sound monetary policies, but given the pressure of inflation, This year's monetary policy may be more flexible, and the use of open market operations, rediscount rates, and deposit rates will become more frequent. This will affect the steel market from the funds. Judging from the current economic fever, at least in the first half of the year, the use of monetary policy will remain relatively active, the capital side may face a relatively tense situation, and bearish steel market, adjust and optimize the industrial structure:
2011 is the new year of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. China's emission reduction commitments at the 2009 Copenhagen Convention still exist. The focus of the 12th Five-Year Plan on accelerating the construction of a resource-saving and environment-friendly society will remain. It is energy saving and emission reduction. The steel industry will continue to bear the brunt of the "two high and one capital" model. The impact of “energy saving and emission reduction†on the steel market can be gleaned from the experience of the second half of 2010.
3, efforts to protect and improve people's livelihood:
We also saw earlier that prices and property issues that have a bearing on the people's livelihood have become a hot topic. The flexible use of monetary policy will certainly be able to curb soaring prices to a certain extent. But we can focus on the down market. As we all know, the real estate industry as one of the eight downstream industries of the steel industry, its development has largely affected the demand for the steel market. Repeated introduction of real estate control bans has given real estate developers a certain amount of deterrence in terms of both psychological and actual trading volume. However, this does not affect the demand for building materials in the property market, because the rise of affordable housing construction will be the next stage of improvement. For the key project of people's livelihood, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has signed a “military order†with local governments at all levels for the allocation of 10 million sets of affordable housing projects in 2011. This is undoubtedly a “hill†for the 2011 steel market, especially the building materials market. There is a great deal of good fortune in the poor water.
I. Review of the Contents of the 2010 Government Work Report On March 5, 2010, the Third Session of the Eleventh National People's Congress was opened at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council made government work to all delegates at the meeting. report. After reading through the contents of the next report, it is simply divided into two parts. The first part is a summary and review of the government work in 2009, and the latter part is the arrangement and outlook of the government work in 2010. The author here mainly wants to review the overall arrangements and plans for 2010 government work in the 2010 government work report.
The report pointed out that in 2010, we must focus on eight areas of work, and I will not repeat them here. However, the author would like to make a simple analysis of the work arrangements involved in or affecting the steel market.
1. Improve the level of macroeconomic regulation and control to maintain stable and rapid economic development. This includes continuing to implement aggressive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. This set the tone for the economic development in 2010 from a macro point of view, and also confirmed the macro background of the development of the steel market in 2010, that is, the capital aspect as a whole is more relaxed, which favors the steel market.
2. Accelerate the transformation of economic development methods and adjust and optimize the economic structure. This mainly includes the promotion of key industries to adjust and rejuvenate, promote mergers and acquisitions of enterprises, eliminate backward production capacity and fight energy saving and emission reduction. When it comes to promoting mergers and acquisitions, elimination of backwardness, and energy-saving emission reduction, people who are familiar with the 2010 steel market are not unfamiliar with these words. 2010 is the year of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†and the year of the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€. The “energy saving and emission reduction†craze that began in late July and early August 2010 has a direct impact on the steel market: Since the mid-July of the year, when the price of steel products has begun to rebound in the downward trend and the market is still discussing vigorously whether this indecisive steel price is likely to turn into a reversal, its arrival has given the market players a clear direction. . China's emission reduction commitments at the Copenhagen climate change summit at the end of 2009: reduce the carbon emission intensity (on the basis of 2005) by 45% by 2020; decrease the energy consumption per unit of GDP by 19.6% during the 11th five-year period; The goal of 14.38%) has given the Chinese government great pressure. The 2010 energy saving and emission reduction is particularly critical under these dual pressures. It also makes the implementation of the policy particularly urgent and strict. This directly led to the soaring of steel prices.
3. Increase the overall development of urban and rural areas and strengthen the foundation for agricultural and rural development.
4. Unswervingly advance reforms and further expand opening to the outside world. This includes a sound financial system to deal with the impact of the international financial crisis, stabilizing and developing foreign trade.
5, efforts to protect and improve people's livelihood and promote social harmony and progress. The main contents include: to expand employment; to speed up the improvement of the system; to reform the income distribution system; to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market; to accelerate the reform of health care; to do a good job in population and family planning work.
Among the above three, a sound financial system, stable and stable employment and social stability, healthy import and export trade, etc., are all external conditions and guarantees conducive to the healthy operation of the steel market, while agricultural infrastructure construction and the real estate market are stable. To a certain extent, development has ensured and boosted the demand of the steel market, which is conducive to the development of steel products. Second, the “hot spot†inventory of 2011 ** is about to be held in the near future. Netizens are hotly discussing the hot spots that will be discussed this year. Major websites also initiate such related investigations. Then, on the basis of sorting, the author carries out the following comprehensive inventory of relevant “hot spots†in various online media, mainly reflected in the following aspects: maintaining the stability of economic development, continuing the myth of China’s economic growth, and accelerating the construction of affordable housing, Establish an effective system to stabilize prices, cool down the property market, divide wealth and cakes, increase residents' incomes, reform income distribution system, increase anti-corruption efforts, promote judicial justice, increase employment opportunities, and promote employment equity; Primary medical reform mechanism.
The above hot spots show that the majority of the people are more concerned about the people’s livelihood. Although the people’s voice has been shouted to a large extent, the comparison with the government’s work arrangements in 2010 has, to some extent, demonstrated the limitations of the public’s attention. In view of this, the author wants to combine the hot spots in 2011 and the work arrangements in 2010 to make simple inferences and predictions about the likely impact of the 2011 steel market policies.
III. Impact of possible policies on the steel market after **1. Macro-control policies:
The National Financial Work Conference at the end of December 2010 and the People's Bank of China Working Conference at the beginning of January 2011 have already made basic adjustments to the 2011 adjustments: In 2011, China’s economy will be transformed into a stable growth phase by the rapid rise from policy stimulus. We will continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and sound monetary policies. What is worth noting here is that monetary policy has shifted from moderately loose monetary policy at the beginning of 2010 to “robust†or “neutral,†and three interest rate increases since 2010 and uninterrupted increases in reserve ratios are also reflected from the side. This point.
Under this macroscopic background, the author expects that there should not be major changes in the macroeconomic regulation and control policy, and that it should be based on the continued implementation of proactive fiscal policies and sound monetary policies, but given the pressure of inflation, This year's monetary policy may be more flexible, and the use of open market operations, rediscount rates, and deposit rates will become more frequent. This will affect the steel market from the funds. Judging from the current economic fever, at least in the first half of the year, the use of monetary policy will remain relatively active, the capital side may face a relatively tense situation, and bearish steel market, adjust and optimize the industrial structure:
2011 is the new year of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. China's emission reduction commitments at the 2009 Copenhagen Convention still exist. The focus of the 12th Five-Year Plan on accelerating the construction of a resource-saving and environment-friendly society will remain. It is energy saving and emission reduction. The steel industry will continue to bear the brunt of the "two high and one capital" model. The impact of “energy saving and emission reduction†on the steel market can be gleaned from the experience of the second half of 2010.
3, efforts to protect and improve people's livelihood:
We also saw earlier that prices and property issues that have a bearing on the people's livelihood have become a hot topic. The flexible use of monetary policy will certainly be able to curb soaring prices to a certain extent. But we can focus on the down market. As we all know, the real estate industry as one of the eight downstream industries of the steel industry, its development has largely affected the demand for the steel market. Repeated introduction of real estate control bans has given real estate developers a certain amount of deterrence in terms of both psychological and actual trading volume. However, this does not affect the demand for building materials in the property market, because the rise of affordable housing construction will be the next stage of improvement. For the key project of people's livelihood, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has signed a “military order†with local governments at all levels for the allocation of 10 million sets of affordable housing projects in 2011. This is undoubtedly a “hill†for the 2011 steel market, especially the building materials market. There is a great deal of good fortune in the poor water.