Shanghai Zinc has launched an impact on the 20,000-point mark after the Spring Festival and has more than doubled its position in just a few trading days. It can be seen that long positions are inevitable, but due to the incompatibility of the fundamentals, Coupled with the unsatisfactory consumption in the spot market, Shanghai Zinc quickly fell back just above the price of 20,000 yuan/t, and continued to lighten down. In recent days, it has fallen below the 18,000 upward support. The weakness of Shanghai zinc is in the base metal. Can be seen here.
At present, Shanghai zinc is still in the process of adjusting the bottom, with the sustained release of short energy, Shanghai zinc or adjustment in place, in the short term is expected to stabilize in 18000. Geopolitics and the European debt crisis become hidden concerns The current Middle East issue still has not much improvement. The Libya situation may deteriorate at any time, making the recent international crude oil prices continue to rise, reducing the pace of global economic recovery. As market concerns about the Middle East have not eased; the risk of domestic tightening policies is still in place, and systemic risks have still not been fully released, making the zinc price pressure heavy.
European economic growth continued to be positive at the beginning of this year. The European debt crisis seems to be gradually forgotten by many people. However, Fitch Ratings downgraded Spain’s sovereign credit rating from “stable†to “negative†last weekend, again reminding people that the crisis is not over yet. Fitch believes that the final cost of reorganizing the banking industry by the Spanish government is uncertain and that local governments in the country may not be able to meet the target of reducing the fiscal deficits for the next two years. In addition, Moody’s Investors Service announced on March 7 that due to the scale of Greek debt and the possibility of structural reforms, the country’s sovereign credit rating was downgraded from “Ba1†to “B1†by three levels, while maintaining Its rating outlook is "negative." At present, among the three major rating agencies, Moody's gives Greece the lowest rating and is also the first rating agency to rate Greek government bonds as "highly speculative." In Moody's lowered the rating of Greece, the market rekindled concerns about the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone, and formed pressure on basic metals such as zinc in the short term. The problem of oversupply still has not improved The fundamentals of Shanghai Zinc have still not been fundamentally changed, and the short-term oversupply problem is hard to change. Coupled with the domestic ** meeting, the market is cautious and there are signs of funds leaving. In the absence of other positive support, the recent zinc price break through the early consolidation trend Powei down.
According to data from the International Lead and Zinc Research Group, the 2010 global refined zinc market has an excess supply of 264,000 t. In 2009, there was a surplus of 446,000 t. ILZSG stated that in 2010 refined zinc production reached 12.764 million tons, while consumption was 12.5 million tons. Western countries have a surplus supply of 75,000 tons of refined zinc, and output and demand are 6.68 million tons and 6.605 million tons respectively. Although the amount of surplus had a certain degree of decline last year, its oversupply situation has not changed. China's policy-based superposition began to release the central bank's eighth annual increase in the bank's reserve requirement ratio after the Spring Festival. The current bank deposit reserve ratio is as high as 19.5%, which is a historical high since the normalization of China's monetary policy. According to calculations, since the interest rate increase at the end of last year, the tightening actions of the central bank have exhausted the bank’s excess reserves, and subsequent austerity measures—increasing interest rates and raising reserves—have become increasingly significant. .
From this perspective, the current tightening is really austerity, and will inevitably gradually affect the real economy. Especially for SMEs, the financial pressure will become more and more obvious, and the risk of superposition of domestic policies is gradually increasing. At present, large-scale enterprises are less affected, but if the pace of regulation is accelerated or the time for regulation and control continues to be long, the follow-up impact may be gradually reflected.
After Shanghai zinc suffered an uptrend in the previous period, it was first broken down after a sustained correction. The short-term trend has been undermined. It is hoped that the short-term stabilization and rapid upward growth will not be realistic. However, the continued favorable US economic data this year, coupled with a weaker US dollar, and 3 The bullish factors such as the advent of the peak season of consumer spending, there is still some support for zinc prices in the near future. It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai Zinc in 1105 near the 17800 for the short-term market adjustment target, such as Shanghai zinc in the 18200 stabilized after more than a single amount.
At present, Shanghai zinc is still in the process of adjusting the bottom, with the sustained release of short energy, Shanghai zinc or adjustment in place, in the short term is expected to stabilize in 18000. Geopolitics and the European debt crisis become hidden concerns The current Middle East issue still has not much improvement. The Libya situation may deteriorate at any time, making the recent international crude oil prices continue to rise, reducing the pace of global economic recovery. As market concerns about the Middle East have not eased; the risk of domestic tightening policies is still in place, and systemic risks have still not been fully released, making the zinc price pressure heavy.
European economic growth continued to be positive at the beginning of this year. The European debt crisis seems to be gradually forgotten by many people. However, Fitch Ratings downgraded Spain’s sovereign credit rating from “stable†to “negative†last weekend, again reminding people that the crisis is not over yet. Fitch believes that the final cost of reorganizing the banking industry by the Spanish government is uncertain and that local governments in the country may not be able to meet the target of reducing the fiscal deficits for the next two years. In addition, Moody’s Investors Service announced on March 7 that due to the scale of Greek debt and the possibility of structural reforms, the country’s sovereign credit rating was downgraded from “Ba1†to “B1†by three levels, while maintaining Its rating outlook is "negative." At present, among the three major rating agencies, Moody's gives Greece the lowest rating and is also the first rating agency to rate Greek government bonds as "highly speculative." In Moody's lowered the rating of Greece, the market rekindled concerns about the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone, and formed pressure on basic metals such as zinc in the short term. The problem of oversupply still has not improved The fundamentals of Shanghai Zinc have still not been fundamentally changed, and the short-term oversupply problem is hard to change. Coupled with the domestic ** meeting, the market is cautious and there are signs of funds leaving. In the absence of other positive support, the recent zinc price break through the early consolidation trend Powei down.
According to data from the International Lead and Zinc Research Group, the 2010 global refined zinc market has an excess supply of 264,000 t. In 2009, there was a surplus of 446,000 t. ILZSG stated that in 2010 refined zinc production reached 12.764 million tons, while consumption was 12.5 million tons. Western countries have a surplus supply of 75,000 tons of refined zinc, and output and demand are 6.68 million tons and 6.605 million tons respectively. Although the amount of surplus had a certain degree of decline last year, its oversupply situation has not changed. China's policy-based superposition began to release the central bank's eighth annual increase in the bank's reserve requirement ratio after the Spring Festival. The current bank deposit reserve ratio is as high as 19.5%, which is a historical high since the normalization of China's monetary policy. According to calculations, since the interest rate increase at the end of last year, the tightening actions of the central bank have exhausted the bank’s excess reserves, and subsequent austerity measures—increasing interest rates and raising reserves—have become increasingly significant. .
From this perspective, the current tightening is really austerity, and will inevitably gradually affect the real economy. Especially for SMEs, the financial pressure will become more and more obvious, and the risk of superposition of domestic policies is gradually increasing. At present, large-scale enterprises are less affected, but if the pace of regulation is accelerated or the time for regulation and control continues to be long, the follow-up impact may be gradually reflected.
After Shanghai zinc suffered an uptrend in the previous period, it was first broken down after a sustained correction. The short-term trend has been undermined. It is hoped that the short-term stabilization and rapid upward growth will not be realistic. However, the continued favorable US economic data this year, coupled with a weaker US dollar, and 3 The bullish factors such as the advent of the peak season of consumer spending, there is still some support for zinc prices in the near future. It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai Zinc in 1105 near the 17800 for the short-term market adjustment target, such as Shanghai zinc in the 18200 stabilized after more than a single amount.