Zhang Guobao, former director of the National Energy Administration, attended the "2010 China International Coal Development High-Level Forum" on October 27, 2010. Although the amount of coal resources can be met, he personally does not advocate the use of coal during China's "12th Five-Year Plan" period. To 4 billion tons. There must be no rapid flow of water, and coal must be planned as a mine, and it must be developed. Wu Hao, the deputy director of the National Energy Administration, also proposed that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the “ceiling†of coal production should be considered, total control should be implemented, and production capacity should be planned scientifically.
In recent years, China's economy has developed rapidly, and the demand for coal has continuously increased. Under the background of price-based marketization, the prosperity of the coal industry has reached a peak, the investment income of the coal industry has increased, the efficiency of enterprises has improved, the scale of industry investment has continued to expand, and a large number of non-coal companies have also set foot in In the coal sector, the nation’s coal capacity under construction is almost out of control. Statistics from the media show that at present, enterprises in 16 industries in China have invested in coal mines, with a total production scale of about 300 million tons. According to statistics from the National Coal Mining Administration on coal mines across the country, there are currently 15,119 in-grade coal mines with a total capacity of 3.691 billion tons; the Ministry of Land and Resources statistics has a total of 14,423 coal mines with coal mining licenses, with a total capacity of 3.66 billion tons.
This round of coal mining industry investment will be released during the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. Deputy Governor of Shanxi Province and former General Manager of Shanxi Luan Group Ren Runhou pointed out that in 2015 China’s total coal production capacity may reach 4.5 billion tons while demand Not more than 4 billion tons. Therefore, the relevant departments believe that if they are not effectively regulated, they will inevitably usher in a new round of excess coal production capacity, resulting in an imbalance in market supply and demand. In the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the “ceiling†of coal production capacity should be set.
Can production capacity be controlled?
But can we control coal production capacity and control it? Judging from the requirements of the five major power groups themselves, the rise in coal prices over the years has become the most troublesome thing for leaders of each group. Datang Group's former general manager Ruo Ruoyu revealed during an interview with the media during the “**†period that from 2008 onwards, the five major power generation groups had a cumulative loss of 60.257 billion yuan in thermal power for three years. The main reason for the loss was that the coal price in the past few years has continued to increase substantially. Rising coal price linkage policy is not timely and not in place. Therefore, entering the coal field has become the most urgent task of the five major power groups. Relevant statistics show that the five major power generation groups and China Resources Group will reach 300 million tons of production capacity in 2010, and will further increase to 700 million tons in 2015, and coal self-sufficiency rate will be more than 50%.
The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†issued by the two state-owned coal enterprises, Shenhua Group and China Coal Group, shows that Shenhua Group plans to have a coal production capacity of 640 million tons by 2015, and China Coal Group's coal production by 2015 will reach 280 million tons. Local state-owned coal companies have also brewing plans to double output.
The coal industry has good economic returns and has become an important pillar industry driving local economic development. At present, from the provinces of various resources, plans for a huge capacity expansion plan are planned. According to the initial planning of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, by the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the region’s coal The output will exceed 1 billion tons. Shanxi Province proposed in its "plan for the adjustment and revitalization of the coal industry in Shanxi Province" that by 2015, the production capacity will be 960 million tons per year. According to the media's summary of the “12th Five-Year†development plan for the coal industry announced by various provinces and regions in the near future, the province’s total planned coal production will exceed 4.2 billion tons by 2015.
Controlling coal demand is fundamental. Therefore, I believe that instead of setting “ceilings†to control coal production, it is better to think of ways to control coal demand. Demand is down, and production will naturally come down. Since 2003, China’s coal production has increased by almost 200 million tons per year. In 2010, China’s coal production has reached 3.24 billion tons. Coal supply and demand have been in a state of tight equilibrium. The reason for this is that coal demand is actually there.
In the market economy, if supply is less than demand, even if it is an administrative order to control coal production, I am afraid that it cannot be controlled. After all, companies have the greatest interest to pursue. Once supply exceeds demand, even if it can produce 4 billion tons of coal, if the market has only 3 billion tons of demand, companies will not produce so much coal, and in the case of oversupply, coal prices will also decline (premise It is the smooth middle link. I remember that when the reform of the power system was launched, it was proposed that "bid the price of the Internet." However, at that time, the actual situation was that electricity was not enough, and local power supplies were cut off, and there were conditions for bidding online. Therefore, controlling the downstream demand for coal, adjusting the industrial structure, vigorously developing the tertiary industry, increasing the construction of renewable energy, and changing the structural system in which the proportion of thermal power in the power structure is too large is fundamental. Once downstream demand goes down, in a market economy environment, companies will control their own coal production. After all, production capacity does not represent production.
In recent years, China's economy has developed rapidly, and the demand for coal has continuously increased. Under the background of price-based marketization, the prosperity of the coal industry has reached a peak, the investment income of the coal industry has increased, the efficiency of enterprises has improved, the scale of industry investment has continued to expand, and a large number of non-coal companies have also set foot in In the coal sector, the nation’s coal capacity under construction is almost out of control. Statistics from the media show that at present, enterprises in 16 industries in China have invested in coal mines, with a total production scale of about 300 million tons. According to statistics from the National Coal Mining Administration on coal mines across the country, there are currently 15,119 in-grade coal mines with a total capacity of 3.691 billion tons; the Ministry of Land and Resources statistics has a total of 14,423 coal mines with coal mining licenses, with a total capacity of 3.66 billion tons.
This round of coal mining industry investment will be released during the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. Deputy Governor of Shanxi Province and former General Manager of Shanxi Luan Group Ren Runhou pointed out that in 2015 China’s total coal production capacity may reach 4.5 billion tons while demand Not more than 4 billion tons. Therefore, the relevant departments believe that if they are not effectively regulated, they will inevitably usher in a new round of excess coal production capacity, resulting in an imbalance in market supply and demand. In the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the “ceiling†of coal production capacity should be set.
Can production capacity be controlled?
But can we control coal production capacity and control it? Judging from the requirements of the five major power groups themselves, the rise in coal prices over the years has become the most troublesome thing for leaders of each group. Datang Group's former general manager Ruo Ruoyu revealed during an interview with the media during the “**†period that from 2008 onwards, the five major power generation groups had a cumulative loss of 60.257 billion yuan in thermal power for three years. The main reason for the loss was that the coal price in the past few years has continued to increase substantially. Rising coal price linkage policy is not timely and not in place. Therefore, entering the coal field has become the most urgent task of the five major power groups. Relevant statistics show that the five major power generation groups and China Resources Group will reach 300 million tons of production capacity in 2010, and will further increase to 700 million tons in 2015, and coal self-sufficiency rate will be more than 50%.
The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†issued by the two state-owned coal enterprises, Shenhua Group and China Coal Group, shows that Shenhua Group plans to have a coal production capacity of 640 million tons by 2015, and China Coal Group's coal production by 2015 will reach 280 million tons. Local state-owned coal companies have also brewing plans to double output.
The coal industry has good economic returns and has become an important pillar industry driving local economic development. At present, from the provinces of various resources, plans for a huge capacity expansion plan are planned. According to the initial planning of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, by the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the region’s coal The output will exceed 1 billion tons. Shanxi Province proposed in its "plan for the adjustment and revitalization of the coal industry in Shanxi Province" that by 2015, the production capacity will be 960 million tons per year. According to the media's summary of the “12th Five-Year†development plan for the coal industry announced by various provinces and regions in the near future, the province’s total planned coal production will exceed 4.2 billion tons by 2015.
Controlling coal demand is fundamental. Therefore, I believe that instead of setting “ceilings†to control coal production, it is better to think of ways to control coal demand. Demand is down, and production will naturally come down. Since 2003, China’s coal production has increased by almost 200 million tons per year. In 2010, China’s coal production has reached 3.24 billion tons. Coal supply and demand have been in a state of tight equilibrium. The reason for this is that coal demand is actually there.
In the market economy, if supply is less than demand, even if it is an administrative order to control coal production, I am afraid that it cannot be controlled. After all, companies have the greatest interest to pursue. Once supply exceeds demand, even if it can produce 4 billion tons of coal, if the market has only 3 billion tons of demand, companies will not produce so much coal, and in the case of oversupply, coal prices will also decline (premise It is the smooth middle link. I remember that when the reform of the power system was launched, it was proposed that "bid the price of the Internet." However, at that time, the actual situation was that electricity was not enough, and local power supplies were cut off, and there were conditions for bidding online. Therefore, controlling the downstream demand for coal, adjusting the industrial structure, vigorously developing the tertiary industry, increasing the construction of renewable energy, and changing the structural system in which the proportion of thermal power in the power structure is too large is fundamental. Once downstream demand goes down, in a market economy environment, companies will control their own coal production. After all, production capacity does not represent production.