On the earthquake in Japan on March 11, we commented on the related impact of the non-ferrous metals industry as follows:
First, the impact on commodity prices and stocks.
The impact on the commodity prices is relatively limited (mainly emotional), and the short-term judgment on the trend of metal price adjustments and shocks remains.
Japan, as the third largest economy in the world, will affect Japan’s economic growth in the short term (although a large amount of infrastructure investment in the later period can quickly promote economic recovery), which will affect the confidence of the slow recovery of the global economy, and therefore will suppress international bulk The overall trend of the product. In addition, Japan is the world's major demand for tin and nickel. Therefore, we believe that the earthquake will cause some negative pressure on nickel and tin demand in the short term and thus suppress prices.
In fact, we think that for the commodity prices, the earthquake in Japan is only aggravated, which basically affects the liquidity of commodity prices, the process of the slow recovery of the global economy and the trend of the US dollar. From these aspects, before the earthquake in Japan, we thought that this round of commodity prices may face a wave of mid-level adjustments. This depends mainly on our belief that the US dollar will strengthen in the short term and that the global economic recovery, especially China’s inventory in the first half of 2011 "This is unlikely to happen. There are two reasons. First, Shanghai-Renbi does not support a sharp rebound in China's metal imports. Second, metal downstream consumer companies have a tight cash flow and have limited restocking capacity. Global liquidity is expected to remain for the full year of the year. Therefore, we believe that short-term bulk commodities may still maintain the trend of adjustment and turbulence. The relevant stocks may lack short-term stimulus.
Second, the impact on the new energy materials industry and related listed companies.
Nippon NdFeB manufacturing and new energy power automotive related industries are relatively advanced. In the earthquake, we have not yet heard the news that Sumitomo Metal, TDK, Shin-Etsu Chemical and other NdFeB production companies have directly stopped production, but overall, the production of downstream cars The suspension of business will affect the downstream demand of NdFeB. However, we believe that the impact on domestic demand and prices of NdFeB is minimal.
The suspension of production by Japanese auto makers theoretically affects the demand for lithium-ion batteries for new energy vehicles. However, because automakers will not suspend production for a long time, and lithium-ion batteries for new energy vehicles are not yet available for commercial sale, new domestic The impact of manufacturers of energy-powered car-related components is minimal.
Third, on the whole, we are now strongly optimistic about investment opportunities in the new energy-powered car-related industries. Maintain the Xiamen Tungsten Rating. It is recommended that investors focus on Tibet mining and Tianqi Lithium.
First, the impact on commodity prices and stocks.
The impact on the commodity prices is relatively limited (mainly emotional), and the short-term judgment on the trend of metal price adjustments and shocks remains.
Japan, as the third largest economy in the world, will affect Japan’s economic growth in the short term (although a large amount of infrastructure investment in the later period can quickly promote economic recovery), which will affect the confidence of the slow recovery of the global economy, and therefore will suppress international bulk The overall trend of the product. In addition, Japan is the world's major demand for tin and nickel. Therefore, we believe that the earthquake will cause some negative pressure on nickel and tin demand in the short term and thus suppress prices.
In fact, we think that for the commodity prices, the earthquake in Japan is only aggravated, which basically affects the liquidity of commodity prices, the process of the slow recovery of the global economy and the trend of the US dollar. From these aspects, before the earthquake in Japan, we thought that this round of commodity prices may face a wave of mid-level adjustments. This depends mainly on our belief that the US dollar will strengthen in the short term and that the global economic recovery, especially China’s inventory in the first half of 2011 "This is unlikely to happen. There are two reasons. First, Shanghai-Renbi does not support a sharp rebound in China's metal imports. Second, metal downstream consumer companies have a tight cash flow and have limited restocking capacity. Global liquidity is expected to remain for the full year of the year. Therefore, we believe that short-term bulk commodities may still maintain the trend of adjustment and turbulence. The relevant stocks may lack short-term stimulus.
Second, the impact on the new energy materials industry and related listed companies.
Nippon NdFeB manufacturing and new energy power automotive related industries are relatively advanced. In the earthquake, we have not yet heard the news that Sumitomo Metal, TDK, Shin-Etsu Chemical and other NdFeB production companies have directly stopped production, but overall, the production of downstream cars The suspension of business will affect the downstream demand of NdFeB. However, we believe that the impact on domestic demand and prices of NdFeB is minimal.
The suspension of production by Japanese auto makers theoretically affects the demand for lithium-ion batteries for new energy vehicles. However, because automakers will not suspend production for a long time, and lithium-ion batteries for new energy vehicles are not yet available for commercial sale, new domestic The impact of manufacturers of energy-powered car-related components is minimal.
Third, on the whole, we are now strongly optimistic about investment opportunities in the new energy-powered car-related industries. Maintain the Xiamen Tungsten Rating. It is recommended that investors focus on Tibet mining and Tianqi Lithium.