Hong Wei: Thoughts on Photovoltaic Guofa [24]

Hong Wei saw the "Several Opinions of the State Council on Promoting Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry" (abbreviated as Guofa [24]). At the same time, he saw the article "Germany will stop solar energy subsidies." Therefore, there was a concern about the previous article. , but it seems to be explained in the next article.

Although Germany's proposed photovoltaic policy does not deserve too much attention until the final legislation is introduced, it is a fact that the success and failure of the German photovoltaic policy and the suspension and suspension of subsidies have been hotly debated. For Germany, the former leader of the global photovoltaic industry, it has proposed to completely terminate PV subsidies by 2018 at the latest. As the world’s largest installed country this year and even the leader of the next few years, China should have more in-depth considerations, in particular, the National Development Bank [24]. ] The article has just been issued.

The document of Guofa [24] focuses on the various elements of the development of the photovoltaic industry and considers the comprehensiveness of the problem. There is no doubt about the feasibility of the solution. The author has never read any other similar industrial development documents of the country. The document Guofa [24] is used as the outline of the State-level industrial development. From the “guidance ideology” to the “basic principle” to the “organizational leadership”, I am afraid that it is more detailed than this. Not much; the author has not even read the outline of the development of photovoltaic industry in mature countries. There is no more than we have. because of this. The author has several reflections:

One of the thoughts: While strongly feeling the country's special care for the photovoltaic industry, the author is also trying to understand the state's painstaking and unreliable approach to adopting an approach different from a completely marketized one for non-fully marketized industries. However, precisely because we are discussing the development of a non-fully marketized industry under the socialist market environment with Chinese characteristics, it is actually more important to emphasize market-oriented thinking and means.

The second consideration: If you read the document of Guofa [24] without mistakes, the document regards expanding the domestic market as the main objective of supporting the PV industry in distress: “To expand the domestic market... As the fundamental to the sustainable and healthy development of the photovoltaic industry. Way out and a basic foothold, "The author believes that: expanding the domestic market should only be a stage of technical means only, should not be the goal. Our policy orientation can neither turn phased measures into long-term measures, nor can we confuse measures and goals. Our goal can only be to establish an internationally competitive photovoltaic industry, as we have stated in the document of Guofa [24] “to promote the international development of photovoltaic companies.” It is difficult for the domestic market to develop companies with international competitiveness. The difficulty of the internationalization of wind power in China, which has the world's largest market, has already been explained.

The third consideration: The prominent issue of the Guofa [24] document is demand-pulling. Although demand-pulling in the economic crisis has become the market-keeping skills of market-oriented countries for more than half a century, its premise must have been full marketization. Operation in the environment, otherwise the result is inevitably or inconsistent, at this time the author even thought of people recently about the "four trillion" discussion. Only relying on domestic demand, whether it can cultivate the most internationally competitive photovoltaic industry, Germany's development experience is worthy of attention.

The author always thought that Germany's photovoltaic industry policy was unsuccessful. The “success” in the concept of the author is that the scale of photovoltaic power generation is steadily expanding when the support of national policies continues until no policy is needed. However, what we are seeing is a significant drop in PV installations following the fall in German subsidies, which was 7.5 GW in 2011, 7.6 GW in 2012, and is expected to be more than 3 GW this year. Photovoltaic power generation also accounts for only 4% of all German power generation. At the same time, a group of international leading photovoltaic companies have no market competitiveness at all.

Why did you propose to stop the subsidy? "Germany will stop the solar subsidy." The article states: "The development of the German photovoltaic industry has lost control." "According to the 2012 standard, photovoltaic power generation has a subsidy of 0.1836 euros per kilowatt-hour, compared with the cost of traditional energy generation. At the rate of 0.047 euros per kWh... The German government’s total subsidies for renewable energy have reached 216 billion euros so far,” and the subsidies will continue for 20 years. Whether the reality of Germany tells people that games are attractive, but the rules of the game need to be adjusted because the industries relying on subsidies and relying on the domestic market must be a hopeless industry.