After China's power consumption has shifted from a phase of rapid growth to a stage of steady growth, the development of electricity will also enter a period of steady growth. However, under the pressure of ensuring energy security, promoting energy diversification, and energy conservation and emission reduction, the development prospects of the coal-fired power industry will be even more affected, and the development space for coal-fired power will further narrow.
At present, China has built a coal power capacity of 800 million kilowatts. By the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, coal-fired power capacity will reach 900 million kilowatts, or even more. The author believes that in the current situation of coal power development has been significantly reduced, it should further control the pace and pace of coal power development. The 900 million kilowatts of coal power will not only meet current needs, but will also be sufficient to protect China's electricity safety and energy security for a long time to come. More importantly, 900 million kilowatts of coal power will inevitably face greater pressure on environmental protection and emission reduction, making China's power structure adjustment unbearable.
From the perspective of domestic demand, judging from the current new situation, by 2015, total electricity installed capacity of 1.4 billion kilowatts and 6 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity generation will basically meet China's electricity demand. To achieve the goal of diversified energy utilization and clean development, China plans to build 530 million kilowatts of clean energy power generation capacity by 2015 (including 290 million kilowatts of hydropower, 100 million kilowatts of wind power, 56 million kilowatts of natural gas power generation, 40 million kilowatts of nuclear power, and 21 million kilowatts Solar power generation, etc.) In this way, the space reserved for coal-fired power is just about 900 million kilowatts. If China has a major breakthrough in energy production and utilization technologies, such as unconventional gas extraction or solar energy utilization, there will be a major leap forward. Natural gas power generation and solar power generation will also occupy more space for coal power development. Taking into account the huge scale of China's hydropower and wind energy, as well as the huge potential for development of natural gas, nuclear power and solar power, 900 million kilowatts of coal-fired power will be able to protect current and future needs for some time.
At present, coal-fired power generation accounts for about 40% of global power generation. In developed countries such as the United States, Europe, and Japan, coal-fired power plants generally account for about one-third of total power generation. The United States, the world's largest coal resource country, has a coal-fired installed capacity of 344 million kilowatts in 2011, accounting for about 30% of the total installed capacity of 1.15 billion kilowatts, and its power generation capacity only accounts for 42%. China’s 900 million kilowatts of coal power The installed capacity accounts for nearly 70% of the country's total installed capacity of power, and about 80% of the power generation capacity—essentially twice the world average. As structural adjustments deepen, if China initially reduces the proportion of coal-fired installed capacity to total electric power installed capacity to 60%, then 900 million kilowatts of coal-fired installed capacity will correspond to a total installed capacity of 1.5 billion kilowatts of electricity—this exceeds 2015. China's power planning arrangements, in the long run, China will further reduce the proportion of coal-fired installed capacity to total installed power to 50%. Then, 900 million kilowatts of coal-fired power capacity will correspond to a total installed capacity of 1.8 billion kilowatts of electricity—this is enough to satisfy China's most optimistic power plan before 2020.
China has large-scale coal power, large development base, and large inertia. Due to the recent decline in coal prices, coal power revenues have improved, and the impulse to develop coal power will be further strengthened. For this kind of impulse, say "slow."
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