Depth analysis of China's and even global LED top ten trends

Abstract Although the LED industry faced many development bottlenecks and even large-scale reshuffle in 2012, the future development trend is still positive. LEDinside analysts in Shenzhen, a research arm of global market research organization TrendForce, organize China to...
Although the LED industry faced many development bottlenecks in 2012 and even a large-scale reshuffle, the future development trend is still positive. LEDinside analysts in the research department of TrendForce, a global market research organization, have organized China and the global LED industry trends, providing deep analysis from LED patents, industry reshuffle, chip overcapacity, large-scale consolidation, and innovative talents.

Trend 1: Some LED patents expire, LED packaging companies may welcome new opportunities

At present, the technical patents of the global LED industry have been firmly grasped in the hands of Cree, Philips, Osram, Nichia and Toyota Synthetics. These five major manufacturers applied for a number of patents covering the entire industry chain covering almost raw materials, equipment, packaging and applications. However, LEDinside observed that the patent wall has shown signs of loosening. According to the provisions of the Patent Law, the period of protection of invention patents is 20 years, and the period of protection of utility model patents and design patents is 10 years, that is, LED-related patents that have been proposed since 1990, which have gradually expired since 2010, and this A significant portion of this also involves important white LEDs. In the next two to three years, a number of core patents in the 1990s will expire. In addition, related patents involving phosphors will gradually become ineffective during 2012-2014.

However, as the Chinese market company's "cottage version" patents also bury hidden dangers, careful study, most of the patents are not original, or pick up the teeth, do some repairs on the basis of the original international LED giant patent, or opportunistic, in In terms of utility models or designs, once the global lawsuits triggered by international giants are encountered, more than 70% of the patents in the Chinese market will be invalidated.

Trend 2: LED lighting products are more visible in the general lighting market

LEDinside believes that the penetration rate of the LED lighting market will accelerate in 2013 due to factors such as the decline in the price of LED lighting products, the maturity of technology, and the increased market awareness of LED lighting products. Originally, traditional lighting manufacturers began to introduce a large number of LED light sources to replace traditional light source products when developing new products. Therefore, in the next two years, the popularity of LED lighting products in the general lighting market will increase rapidly and penetrate into various lighting fields.

Trend 3: The Chinese market will be closed down and the reshuffle will be more

2013 is known as an important year for the expansion of China's LED market. LEDinside predicts that the penetration rate of LED downlights and spotlights in the mainland market will exceed 30%, while the sales of LED lighting industry may reach RMB 1 billion, but for excessive expansion In the case of the LED industry, it is difficult for manufacturers to benefit from the oversupply of production capacity.

In particular, China LED epitaxial manufacturers, which have been established in the past few years due to government subsidies, LEDinside estimates that there will be less than 30 LED epitaxial plants in China in the next few years. Although mainland China's MOCVD equipment manufacturers are also rushing to catch up and hope to attack the MOCVD equipment market monopolized by foreign companies, due to the large-scale shutdown of imported MOCVD machines, these localized brand MOCVD machines are difficult to show; In addition, the gap in the strength of LED companies has gradually emerged. With the expansion of more large LED packaging companies, some small and medium-sized packaging factories in mainland China will face a crisis of bankruptcy.

Trend 4: LED chip prices are falling, supply chain structure is profitable

LEDinside believes that thanks to the growing demand for handheld devices and LED lighting products, the global LED output value will reach 12.4 billion US dollars in 2013, up 12% from 2012, but the overall supply of LED industry cannot be solved in the short term.

The hot investment in China's LED industry chain and the continuous ordering of MOCVD will undoubtedly increase the output and inventory of LED chips. In order to obtain benefits, the company will further reduce the price of chips and implement a new round of price wars. The profit margin will also be further reduced. According to the latest statistics from the market, compared with the beginning of 2012, the price of LED sapphire substrates and chips in the upstream has dropped by more than one third. The situation of China's LED structural overcapacity will continue in mid-2013, LED chip prices will further decline, the profit of middle and upper reaches will be reduced, overcapacity will also lead to structural integration of LED supply chain, horizontal restructuring of upstream and upstream companies Or vertical vertical integration for downstream infiltration.

Trend 5: Lack of innovative talents

The talents in the upstream of the industrial chain such as LED epitaxial chips are the most scarce. Taking MOCVD equipment as an example, VEECO and AIXTRON in Germany account for 90% to 95% of the global market share. Although Japanese equipment is also relatively advanced, it is basically self-use for domestic use and rarely exported. Many mainland companies don't understand the actual situation, thinking that they can be put into production directly with equipment. After spending a lot of money on equipment in the United States and Germany, it was discovered that there were a lack of knowledgeable and experienced personnel to debug and operate the equipment. These companies have had to dig people from high-paying companies in Taiwan and South Korea to solve their immediate needs. This is not uncommon.

For the majority of companies, it is understandable to introduce talents through the excavation of the eye for the urgent need, but we must have a long-term vision and overcome the mentality of quick success. If there is no innovative soil and environment, even if we dig up talents from outside, it will be difficult to survive. Will gradually wither.

Trend 6: Acceleration of the integration of the mainland LED industry chain, the deposit is king

LEDinside believes that with the oversupply of the LED packaging market and the upgrade of the mainland LED industry, it will inevitably lead some mainland companies to turn to the areas that Taiwanese companies are good at. It is estimated that in 2013, Sanan Optoelectronics' LED chip production capacity will exceed that of Taiwan's leading chip manufacturer. Since 2013, Taiwanese companies have deeply felt the threat of mainland companies; before the acquisition of Sanan, Ronda and Power League, or Guangjiao and Jingdian, have also realized that mainland LED companies will inevitably erode Department of the company's territory, and prepare in advance. At the same time, Taiwan-funded companies are also actively setting up factories in the mainland, hoping to expand their market share and profits by leveraging the advantages of mainland capital and market capacity.

LEDinside pointed out that considering the vast market advantages of LED commercial and outdoor lighting in the mainland and the technical and standard advantages of Taiwanese companies, the integration of LED industry will not rule out the LED epitaxial manufacturers or LED lighting manufacturers and the mainland. The merger of LED companies.

Trend 7: Industry transfer, foreign companies eclipse whales, local fights

The huge potential of the mainland market has attracted more and more international LED giants to turn their attention to China. They have adjusted their strategies to step up their distribution in China, shifting industries to China, and increasing the development of the Chinese market. For example, Osram has built a LED chip enclosure factory in Wuxi, Philips has established Philips Professional Lighting and Demonstration Park in Chengdu, and GE has established its first customer collaboration innovation center in Northwest China.

As far as the Chinese market in China is concerned, the LED industry is also undergoing a migration movement with a gradient shift. If Leigu moved to Huizhou base, NVC moved its headquarters from Huizhou to Chongqing.

LEDinside believes that from the above LED international or Chinese market giant migration situation and development plan, it can be seen that 2013 is still a year of industrial transfer. Benefiting from China's policy support and preferential policies announced by various localities, coupled with China's huge market, the relatively low production and labor cost advantages are also one of the tempting factors for foreign companies to increase investment in China. Compared with the LED companies in mainland China, due to the obvious increase in production costs in coastal areas in recent years, with the rise of the LED market in the Mainland and the more attractive local investment policies, the overall development of the LED industry will be staged along the coast. Gradient transfer to the interior.

Trend 8: The light effect competition continues, and it is estimated that the volume of products in 2013 will fall at 160lm/W~180lm/W.

The light efficiency competition has always been a war that every manufacturer can't lose. Cree's invincibility in the lighting market is based on the ability to continuously refresh the light effect record. In 2012, it was not easy for you to chase after this kind of vendor, but it opened up a bigger gap. The emergence of GaN homoepitaxial growth, there is a plan to overtake the curve in the brightness. Although Seoul Semiconductor released the news that nPola single-chip luminous flux to 500lm, but the input power is always cited, it has caused many illusions about its light effect. And its substrate supplier Mitsubishi itself is the first to become a customer of this product, almost self-produced.

The light effect competition will continue in 2013, but the mass production in the market is still the main axis of 2013 at 160 lm/W.

Trend 9: "GaN-on-Si" is still the focus of attention, nPSS becomes a new hot spot

In 2013, which technologies can really enter the center of the stage, which determines the rhythm of technological progress in the entire industry? LEDinside believes that "GaN-on-Si" substrates are still the focus of the market, and nPSS is becoming a new hot spot, and the remote phosphors have a wide space.

From the substrate material, the silicon substrate is likely to become a real challenge from the theoretical threat of previous years. Toshiba announced on December 14, 2012 that it has developed white GaN-on-Si for LED illumination. The silicon-based GaN LED chip "TL1F1 series (1W)" will be mass-produced at a scale of 10 million/month from late December. Not surprisingly, the market share of GaN-on-Si LEDs in 2013 may enter a single digit percentage, and another technical competition will be held with mainstream sapphire substrates or SiC substrates.

Trend 10: Countries accelerate the process of industrial standardization, and 2013 will form the LED standard year

In the past few years, countries have announced LED industry certifications and standards, and established industry alliance institutions, which are intended to standardize industrial development and bring the chaotic LED industry to the right track as soon as possible.
The European Union has regulations (EU) No 1194/2012 on directional lamps, LED lights and related equipment, and ENEC (European Standard Electrical Appliances), which are products that are specific to and comply with European standards (such as lighting equipment, components, and European safety certification common mark used by office & data equipment.

In North America, various test standards related to LED products have been continuously updated, including IES LM-79 "Electrical and Luminous Measurement of Solid State Lighting Products", IES LM-80 "LED Source Lumen Maintenance Measurement" and IES TM-21 "Long-term lumen maintenance measurement of LED light source", and the latest IES LM-82 "Electrical and Luminous Performance Evaluation of LED Light Engine (as a function of temperature)" in 2012, in addition to the safety standards for LED products. UL certification. In addition, the Energy Star Energy Conservation Program, jointly implemented by the US Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency, is also a very important LED product certification, and has been adopted by Australia, Canada, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand and the European Union. In addition to various certification standards, the US government has also launched important layouts such as the National Semiconductor Lighting Research Program and the Next Generation Lighting Program (NGLI).

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan, starting from July 1, 2012, LED bulbs and LED lamps entering the Japanese market must be labeled with a round PSE.

China also released the "Technical Requirements for Energy-Efficient Evaluation of Semiconductor Lighting Applications (2012 Edition)", which includes energy-saving evaluation technical requirements for the application of LED lighting products such as roads, tunnel lamps and indoor lamps, as well as LEDs for airports, railway stations, urban rail transit and other places. Lighting engineering technical requirements and other content.

All countries and regions are accelerating the standardization of LED industry. They intend to standardize the quality and performance of LED products through various certifications and requirements, and prevent disorder caused by disorderly competition. LEDinside expects the establishment of various industry alliance institutions to play a leading and regulating role in the LED market and the company, solve key technologies and common problems, and promote industrial development.

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