Event: The General Administration of Customs announced the statistical news: China's copper imports in April were 375,000 tons, which was 8.69 million tons less than that in March, an increase of 42.86% and a decrease of 18.81% from the previous month. In the first four months of 2012, the total import was 1.736 million tons, an increase of 48.79%. On May 10, the General Administration of Customs announced the statistical news. In April 2012, China imported 375,258 tons of "unwrought copper and copper", which was less than 86,900 tons imported from March, and accumulated 1,735,973 tons in January-April. It increased by 48.79% year-on-year. Since November 2011, China’s monthly copper imports have exceeded 400,000 tons for five consecutive months. Although China's copper imports fell by 4.62% in March from February, they are still at a high level. In April, copper imports fell below 400,000 tons for the first time, and the chain fell more. The decline in copper imports in April was basically in line with expectations. We have predicted that copper imports will decline in April in the copper import data review last month. The main reasons are: 1. China's economic situation does not support large imports; 2. The internal and external price difference of copper prices leads to import losses. . China's GDP growth rate has fallen for four consecutive quarters since the end of 2010. The decline in economic growth has directly led to a decline in the actual growth rate of copper. Today, the statistics released by the General Administration of Customs showed that China's import growth rate in April was only 0.3% (in March). The growth rate was 5.3%, which fully reflected the sluggish domestic economy. At the same time, the export growth rate also fell to 4.9% in April, which was caused by the negative impact of the European debt crisis. Since October 2011, due to China's economic downturn, the policy has only been “pre-tuned and fine-tunedâ€. At the same time, the US economy has steadily recovered, resulting in the trend of copper prices being “external and weak†and the Shanghai-Lennon ratio has been declining. At present, the price ratio of Shanghai copper to copper is 7.11. According to the current RMB exchange rate of 6.3, generally 7.4 is the equilibrium level of the price, higher than 7.4 is favorable for imports, and lower than 7.4 is theoretically beneficial for export. Since October 2011, the ratio of domestic and foreign copper prices has been below 7.4, and imported copper continues to lose money. We expect this situation to continue in 2012. This will continue to suppress copper imports. The main reason for the large import of copper in the past few months was the financing demand. This is obviously not sustainable. The rumors of “soft-carrying warehouses†recently issued a statement by Jiangtong’s Jiangxi Copper International Trade Co., Ltd. that China’s large copper smelting and trading companies have reached a consensus that they will increase their positions in the registered warehouses of the London Metal Exchange (LME) in the next two months. Export "sufficient" amount of electrolytic copper. The above-mentioned copper smelting companies include major members of the China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) and Xiangguang Copper, etc. It is expected to adjust the supply and demand of domestic and foreign markets through this move. This news was interpreted by many media and market participants as a Chinese copper company was softly forced by an international spot company (rumored to be Glencore). At present, the macroeconomic situation is not conducive to long positions, but in the short term, it is entirely possible to form a “soft position†near the closing date, and the conditions for forming a “soft position†are: holding a large number of short positions in the near future contract; It is impossible to raise enough stock to deliver; the recent contract maintains a relatively stable but not very large premium for the forward contract. Judging from the situation of the disk, the recent “soft-forcible position†has basically succeeded. Recently, the recent LME contract premium has remained at 80-100 US dollars. If there is no spot delivery, the recent contract premium is a “shift†loss. "Soft-forcible positions" earned not the absolute price, but the recent contractual rise (Backwadation). Of course, it may not be Jiang Bing, or mainly Jiang Bing. Because Jiangxi Copper only “protects†this part of the imported copper concentrate smelting copper, this short-selling of the value cannot be so large. The subsequent impact of the soft-carrying warehouse may cause the copper in the domestic bonded warehouse to accelerate to the LME warehouse, earning this part of the recent contract premium, but it will also cause the inventory of the LME Asian warehouse to rise. Impact on recent copper price trends China's copper import growth rate is an important data to track “China's demandâ€. Excessive financing demand in the past few months has made copper import data “abnormally highâ€. At present, the monthly import volume is returning to normal, but the current monthly import volume of 375,000 tons is still high. We expect China's copper imports to continue to fall in May, and there is still a long-term "de-stocking" process in China, which will significantly suppress the copper price trend. We believe that unless we introduce strong economic stimulus policies and not just “pre-tuning and fine-tuningâ€, we still maintain a “cautious†attitude towards metal price movements.
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