Compared with developed countries, China’s aluminum consumption per capita is still relatively low. With the further increase of China’s urbanization rate and the continual deepening of consumption and industrial upgrading during the transformation of economic structure, the endogenous growth potential of aluminum consumption in China is still very broad. Higher oil prices and higher ratios of copper to aluminum have created a positive external environment for the replacement, popularization, and promotion of aluminum, and are also expected to become catalysts for the improvement of aluminum performance. The abundant aluminum resources have also made it impossible to use aluminum for industrial scale applications. bottleneck.
From the macroscopic aspect of economic growth, the meso-perspective of the industry evolution, and the micro-behavior of corporate development, we all find that the current aluminum industry from the primary electrolytic aluminum smelting into deep processing will become an inevitable trend. Aluminum processing products are generally priced at “aluminum price + processing feeâ€. When the total downstream demand and structure increase rapidly, companies with technological advantages, channel advantages, cost advantages, and location advantages are not only It can be guaranteed, and there is also the possibility of improvement. If the expansion of capacity expansion factors is superimposed, the growth of performance will be rapid and significant.
In 2010, the demand for automotive alloy foil in China exceeded 186,000 t. We forecast that the demand in 2011-12 will be 24.6 and 308,000 t/a respectively, and the compound growth rate will be about 23% in 2010-12. In the medium term, we believe that with the shift of the entire automobile and automotive parts industry to China, the future of domestic automotive alloy foil manufacturers will face the global market. Under the neutral assumption, the demand for global automotive alloy foil in 2012 was 889,400 tons, and the compound annual growth rate in 2011-12 was 10%.
While aluminum electrolytic capacitors are growing rapidly in the traditional consumer electronics field, their applications in variable frequency motors, energy-saving lamps, wind power, and electric vehicles are also expanding. Under the neutral assumption, based on the simple calculation of the market size of China's inverter, we believe that in 2012, the demand for electrode foil in China is expected to reach 49,800 tons, and the combined growth rate of electrode foil demand in China in the next three years will be 26.7%.
According to our research, the consumption of aluminum profiles for high-speed trains will increase from 10,100 tons in 2009 to 46,300 tons in 2012, with a compound growth rate of 66.1%; over the same period, the consumption of aluminum profiles in the metro train market will be from 2009. From 0.86 million tons to 20,400 tons in 2012, the compound growth rate was 33.4%. Under the neutral assumption, the compound annual growth rate of automotive aluminum profiles will remain at around 21% from 2010 to 2015, and the market scale will reach 2015. More than 500,000 tons.
Key companies: Chang Aluminum, Dongyang Sunny, Xinjiang Zhonghe, Nanshan Aluminum, and Yunhai Metals.
Risk Warning: Overcapacity production, new industry development process is lower than expected
From the macroscopic aspect of economic growth, the meso-perspective of the industry evolution, and the micro-behavior of corporate development, we all find that the current aluminum industry from the primary electrolytic aluminum smelting into deep processing will become an inevitable trend. Aluminum processing products are generally priced at “aluminum price + processing feeâ€. When the total downstream demand and structure increase rapidly, companies with technological advantages, channel advantages, cost advantages, and location advantages are not only It can be guaranteed, and there is also the possibility of improvement. If the expansion of capacity expansion factors is superimposed, the growth of performance will be rapid and significant.
In 2010, the demand for automotive alloy foil in China exceeded 186,000 t. We forecast that the demand in 2011-12 will be 24.6 and 308,000 t/a respectively, and the compound growth rate will be about 23% in 2010-12. In the medium term, we believe that with the shift of the entire automobile and automotive parts industry to China, the future of domestic automotive alloy foil manufacturers will face the global market. Under the neutral assumption, the demand for global automotive alloy foil in 2012 was 889,400 tons, and the compound annual growth rate in 2011-12 was 10%.
While aluminum electrolytic capacitors are growing rapidly in the traditional consumer electronics field, their applications in variable frequency motors, energy-saving lamps, wind power, and electric vehicles are also expanding. Under the neutral assumption, based on the simple calculation of the market size of China's inverter, we believe that in 2012, the demand for electrode foil in China is expected to reach 49,800 tons, and the combined growth rate of electrode foil demand in China in the next three years will be 26.7%.
According to our research, the consumption of aluminum profiles for high-speed trains will increase from 10,100 tons in 2009 to 46,300 tons in 2012, with a compound growth rate of 66.1%; over the same period, the consumption of aluminum profiles in the metro train market will be from 2009. From 0.86 million tons to 20,400 tons in 2012, the compound growth rate was 33.4%. Under the neutral assumption, the compound annual growth rate of automotive aluminum profiles will remain at around 21% from 2010 to 2015, and the market scale will reach 2015. More than 500,000 tons.
Key companies: Chang Aluminum, Dongyang Sunny, Xinjiang Zhonghe, Nanshan Aluminum, and Yunhai Metals.
Risk Warning: Overcapacity production, new industry development process is lower than expected